What is the Bitcoin Bull/Bear signal?
Bitcoin moves in long, emotional cycles, and most of the noise in between doesn't matter. The Bull/Bear signal answers one question: is Bitcoin's weekly trend up or down? It looks only at weekly closes and labels each one bull or bear using a proprietary trend model tuned to Bitcoin's market cycles. The state only changes when the trend genuinely turns, so flips are rare: 9 since 2017.
How to read the chart
- Green weekly closes are a bull trend, red ones a bear trend.
- Labels above and below the line mark each flip, with the weekly close it happened at.
- The dotted horizontal line is the price of the most recent flip, a useful reference level.
- The blue line is the 200-week exponential moving average, Bitcoin's classic long-term baseline.
- Drag to pan and pinch (or drag the price axis) to zoom. The price scale is logarithmic.
Flip history
| Trend | Started | Flip close | Weeks | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BULLongoing | Aug 17, 2026 | $77,734 | 8 | +8.0% |
| BEAR | Nov 10, 2025 | $94,261 | 40 | -17.5% |
| BULL | Jan 9, 2023 | $20,872 | 148 | +351.6% |
| BEAR | Jan 3, 2022 | $41,865 | 53 | -50.1% |
| BULL | May 11, 2020 | $9,680 | 86 | +332.5% |
| BEAR | Sep 23, 2019 | $8,044 | 33 | +20.3% |
| BULL | Apr 1, 2019 | $5,170 | 25 | +55.6% |
| BEAR | Jan 15, 2018 | $11,530 | 63 | -55.2% |
| BULL | Dec 4, 2017 | $14,900 | 6 | -22.6% |
Move = weekly close at the next flip (or the latest close, for the ongoing trend) versus the close at the flip.
What it is, and what it isn't
The signal is a trend filter, not a crystal ball. It confirms a change after the weekly close, so it will never catch the exact top or bottom. What it does well is keep you on the right side of Bitcoin's big moves and out of the chop in between. Use it alongside the Fear & Greed Index, Bitcoin market data and the latest Bitcoin news.