CPI Runs a Bit Hot: $200M in Crypto Longs Get an Early Checkout 🫠

US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, exceeding the 0.23% Wall Street expected, triggering approximately $200 million in leveraged crypto liquidations within five minutes of the release on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held at 0.3% for a third consecutive month, above the expected 0.2%. Bitcoin ($BTC) fell below $74,000 while Ether ($ETH) dropped below $2,050, with both reaching their lowest levels in 11 weeks.

Bitcoin swung between $74,770 and $73,525 on Binance during the five minutes following the 8:30 a.m. ET release, closing the window near $73,709, down 0.9%. It traded around $73,918 by 8:36 a.m. ET, later trading near $73,274, down 2% over 24 hours. Spot gold fell 0.6% to about $4,048 an ounce over the same period after touching $4,040, according to OANDA data. Approximately $178 million in crypto long positions were liquidated within an hour of the announcement, while Bull Theory reported more than $170,000,000 in longs liquidated over five minutes.

Traders had priced in 84% odds of a December Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike before the release. CME FedWatch data showed an 88.3% chance of a quarter-point increase and an 11.7% chance of a half-point increase as of 16:28 UTC on Tuesday, while Reuters reported that financial analysts had raised their estimated probability of a 50-basis-point hike to nearly 15% by midmorning. Jeff Anderson, head of US at STS Digital, said, “Following today’s CPI release, markets are now pricing approximately 27 basis points of tightening into the December rate curve,” adding that, “The prospect of another rate hike is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.”

Fed Governor Christopher Waller made the case for a larger move shortly before the report, saying in London that another core CPI reading of 0.3% could justify one. “In that case, I believe a 50-basis-point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting,” Waller said. “Hiking only 25-basis-points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.” The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% in October, after raising it by a quarter-point in September; Fed Chair Kevin Warsh linked tighter financial conditions to AI-driven demand.

October food prices rose 0.5% after holding flat in September, with groceries up 0.4% and restaurant meals up 0.5%. Energy costs increased 0.7%, and seasonally adjusted gasoline prices rose 1.0% while standing 37.4% above a year earlier. Housing costs, the index’s largest component, rose 0.3% after 0.4% in September. Headline CPI forecasts ranged from Morgan Stanley’s 0.19% to Wells Fargo’s 0.28%, and every bank in the pre-release survey described consensus as too low. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) shed $1.28 billion last week and another approximately $201 million on Monday.

Bitcoin also fell below its $73,100 200-day moving average, a level that had supported its recovery to $87,400 in September before nearly 16.5% of that value disappeared. CryptoKid said, “There is absolutely no demand for Bitcoin between roughly $73,500 and $66,700. $73,500 happens to be the 200-day moving average, which is the good news. As long as we stay above that level, BTC should be fine. But losing it could drag the price down another 9.5%.” Other monitored levels were $72,165, $68,000, the $66,200–$67,300 resistance zone and the $62,750 August low. Bitcoin’s RSI was near 33, while Tether’s USDT market capitalization had fallen by $6.6 billion over 60 days; total crypto market capitalization stood at $2.57 trillion, with $BTC, $ETH and Solana ($SOL) down 2%, nearly 5% and 5.6%, respectively.