Oil’s Got Two Clocks: Midterms Ease the Pressure, Tankers Keep the Heat On

Brent crude held near $98 a barrel on Friday after falling more than 12.5% for the week as de-escalation hopes offset supply concerns, but former Biden energy adviser Amos Hochstein warned that renewed US-Iran conflict remains more likely than not. Hochstein, now a TWG Global managing partner, put the odds of another war above 50/50 and told CNBC that the decision to resume fighting predated the midterms but was delayed by days. “I think that there is a very good chance that we go back to conflict.”

Traders read the Democratic midterm sweep as a brake on the war, sending oil 8% lower on Wednesday. The repricing left fuel buyers exposed to higher diesel, gasoline and jet fuel costs if fighting resumes. US forces reportedly struck Iran’s Qeshm Island the day before the vote, while Hochstein said President Donald Trump has three options: renewed war, a deal Trump dislikes and prolonged economic pressure on Iran.

Iran said attacks hit three more tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, even as tensions cooled. Data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) suggests attacks on oil-carrying ships are running near a record pace. Iran also reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, but the US continues to demand that Tehran give up its nuclear capabilities.

Goldman Sachs set a $105 December Brent target before the vote, citing supply disruption risk, and Brent now trades below it. KCM chief analyst Tim Waterer said Brent at $98 trades under its four-year high of more than $120. “Until there is a credible path to safer, cheaper transit through the Gulf, oil is likely to remain supported on dips and prone to sharp moves on any escalation headlines.”