Polling, Polymarket and a $200,000 Surprise: The Market Got the Memo First

Suspicious prediction market activity preceded the public release of two recent New York Times/Siena political polls, according to a report. Vanderbilt University researchers said a Polymarket user wagered almost $200,000 on Oct. 31 that Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts would be re-elected. An hour later, a Times/Siena poll was released showing Ricketts in the lead.

A Friday New York Times report said the user won more than $77,000 from the bet, though it was not clear whether the user had access to inside information. The account also placed similarly large bets on other markets, including Kalshi. “There’s a series of circumstances here that it’s hard to write it off as a random occurrence,” said Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security. He said the situation “requires further investigation.”

Polymarket said it had identified the trades and was investigating. Kalshi declined comment. The report did not establish how the user obtained the information or whether the bets were connected.

Cointelegraph reported in April that a US Army soldier had been charged after making more than $400,000 by betting on a prediction market allegedly using nonpublic information tied to a US operation involving then Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The Department of Justice alleged that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke took part in planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to Maduro’s capture at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January.

The Justice Department said Van Dyke allegedly used the information to buy “yes” shares in related Polymarket contracts, including “Maduro out by January 31” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31.”