Arthur Hayes says AI IPOs could dilute more than stocks—and test Bitcoin liquidity 🧪

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has warned that upcoming IPOs from major artificial intelligence companies, including SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, could dilute early investors’ holdings, pressure technology stock prices and weaken bank lending.

In his article titled “D is for Dilution,” Hayes said large share unlocks after the listings could reduce the value of early investors’ holdings and make it more expensive for AI companies to raise debt. He argued that the effects could extend beyond the technology sector as falling AI valuations influence banks’ willingness to extend credit.

Hayes said a reduction in dollar liquidity could place downward pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. He compared the potential impact of major AI IPOs with Zcash’s early trading history, using it to illustrate how investors buying at the initial offering price can lose value as shares are unlocked.

Over a longer horizon, Hayes said a potential financial crisis could prompt central banks to introduce monetary easing. He argued that the resulting increase in financial-system liquidity could eventually benefit Bitcoin, even if the initial effect of AI share dilution and reduced lending capacity is bearish for crypto markets.