Election night delivers a blue sweep—and crypto’s biggest bill hits a bigger speed bump

Democrats took control of the US Senate after Sen. Josh Turek won the Iowa race, giving Democrats and independents who caucus with them 51 seats, according to the Associated Press. Democrats also won control of the House, completing the shift highlighted by prediction markets during the November 3, 2026, midterms. Republicans entered the election holding 53 Senate seats, 45 Democratic seats and two seats held by independents who caucus with Democrats, plus a narrow House majority. Democrats needed a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to take control. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate races were contested.

The result could complicate the stalled CLARITY Act, which failed to advance in a 49–50 Senate procedural vote on Sept. 15, short of the 60 votes required. The bill would divide oversight of crypto markets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and establish rules for intermediaries. If the legislation is not passed by January, the next Congress starts again from scratch, according to Ethereum France president and EthCC co-founder Jerome de Tychey. “It’s too early to say exactly what this means for crypto, but one thing is clear: nothing will pass without cross-partisan support,” he said. “Conflict-of-interest rules and customer protection obligations are things a mature industry should welcome.” He also warned that crypto policy becoming “entrenched as a partisan issue” could set the US back several years.

Crypto industry groups spent approximately $176 million across more than 100 races, according to Reuters. Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz finance the Fairshake political network, whose affiliated super PACs include Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress. Fairshake-backed spending targeted the Ohio Senate race between Republican Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown: Defend American Jobs allocated 54% of its total expenses, including $36.9 million supporting Husted and $19.7 million opposing Brown, according to its official website. The Digital Freedom Fund, backed by Gemini co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, also supported Husted. In Maine, prediction markets favored Democrat Troy Jackson over Republican Sen. Susan Collins, one of four Republicans who voted against advancing the CLARITY Act in September. Stand With Crypto rates Jackson as strongly supportive of crypto.

Prediction markets assigned near-total certainty to the result, with Polymarket reaching a 100% implied probability of a Democratic sweep on November 3, 2026. Before voting ended, a Democratic sweep was priced at 75% on Kalshi and 75.5% on Polymarket as of 4:30 p.m. UTC, while Kalshi traders assigned Democrats a 93% chance of winning the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate; Polymarket priced those outcomes at 94.5% and 75.5%. Nearly $1.9 billion in election-related contracts had traded on the two platforms as of Monday. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour cautioned that “a 5% probability doesn’t mean it won’t happen.” The prediction came nine days after markets failed to anticipate Brazil’s presidential election, with Flávio Bolsonaro favored at roughly 80% the day before incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the runoff.

Regulatory movement may now come more from federal agencies than Congress. 1inch deputy general counsel Maylea Ma said the Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Treasury were increasingly engaging with crypto projects and would drive the next phase of regulation. “The long-term goal, of course, remains a statute that cannot be reversed every time a government changes,” she said. D3 co-founder Michael Ho said agency guidance remains reversible and keeps serious capital waiting. “Whatever the result, clear rules written into law are what will bring institutional capital into tokenized real-world assets.” In August, the SEC proposed exemptions for certain token offerings and a safe harbor from treatment as investment contracts, then updated staff guidance covering token buybacks, crypto networks and staking receipt tokens in September. The CFTC submitted a crypto market regulatory plan for White House review on Sept. 17.

Markets initially reflected the political shift before paring some losses. $BTC fell to about $75,695 before trading near $77,607 in early Wednesday trading, up 1.3% over 24 hours and below its 24-hour high of $77,965, according to CoinGecko. S&P 500 futures fell 1.25% by 11:24 p.m. ET, Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 2.26% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 0.77%, according to Investing.com; S&P 500 futures later traded roughly 0.5% below Tuesday’s settlement. Coinbase (COIN) rose 5.53% and Robinhood (HOOD) gained 2.19% in post-election trading, while Bitcoin and XRP edged higher.