Congress flips the script: Crypto’s $176M bet meets a Democratic Senate 🪙

Democrats have claimed control of the US Senate, bringing Democrats and independents who caucus with them to 51 seats after Democrat Senator Josh Turek won Iowa’s Senate race, according to the Associated Press. The election also determined control of the House, putting both chambers in Democratic hands and reshaping the stalled CLARITY Act, committee leadership and potential scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s crypto businesses. Senate control could also influence confirmation of future presidential nominees to regulatory posts.

Crypto industry groups spent approximately $176 million across more than 100 races during the 2026 election cycle, according to Reuters. Fairshake, backed by Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz, led spending through affiliated super PACs Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress. Other crypto-aligned groups included the Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss-backed Digital Freedom Fund and Fellowship PAC. The Blockchain Association identified 62 priority races, comprising 18 Senate and 44 House contests, while all 435 House seats and 35 Senate races were contested. Republicans had entered the election with 53 Senate seats, compared with 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with them, and Democrats needed a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to take control.

Major spending focused on Ohio, where Republican Sen. Jon Husted faced Democrat Sherrod Brown, a longtime crypto critic. Defend American Jobs allocated 54% of its total expenses to the race, spending $36.9 million supporting Husted and $19.7 million opposing Brown; total crypto industry spending in Ohio was approximately $63 million, including about $56 million from Fairshake and $7 million from the Winklevoss-backed Digital Freedom Fund. Prediction markets before the vote favored Brown, with Kalshi assigning a 72% chance of victory and Polymarket 72.5%, broadly consistent with a final New York Times/Siena poll showing Brown ahead 49% to 44%. In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins, one of four Republicans who voted against advancing the CLARITY Act in September, faced Democrat Troy Jackson, whom Stand with Crypto rates as strongly supportive of crypto; Kalshi gave Jackson a 71% chance of unseating her and Polymarket placed his chances at 71.5%.

The CLARITY Act failed to advance in a 49–50 Senate procedural vote on Sept. 15, short of the required 60 votes. It would divide crypto market oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and establish rules for intermediaries. Democratic Sen. Mark Warner cited insufficient safeguards against Trump profiting from his administration’s crypto policies, while Republican sponsors said the final draft incorporated substantial ethics concessions sought by Democrats. Jerome de Tychey, president of Ethereum France and co-founder of EthCC, said: “It’s too early to say exactly what this means for crypto, but one thing is clear: nothing will pass without cross-partisan support.” He added: “The CLARITY Act failed its Senate procedural vote 49 to 50 in September, and if it isn’t passed by January, the next Congress starts again from scratch. So the industry will have to go back to the table and make the case for blockchain again, on substance.”

Maylea Ma, deputy general counsel at 1inch, said “real movement” in US digital-asset regulation over the next few years will come from the Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Treasury rather than Congress. She said: “The long-term goal, of course, remains a statute that cannot be reversed every time a government changes.” D3 co-founder Michael Ho said: “With the market structure bill stalled, US crypto policy continues to rest on agency guidance that a future administration can reverse, and that keeps serious capital waiting.” In August, the SEC proposed exemptions for certain token offerings and a safe harbor from treatment as investment contracts, then updated staff guidance covering token buybacks, crypto networks and staking receipt tokens in September. The CFTC submitted a crypto market regulatory plan for White House review on Sept. 17.

Markets assigned near certainty to the Democratic sweep on election day. Polymarket reached a 100% implied probability of Democratic control of both chambers on Nov. 3, 2026, after earlier markets had pegged a Democratic House at 92% and a full sweep at 65%–77%. Before voting, a Democratic sweep was priced at 75% on Kalshi and 75.5% on Polymarket, while Kalshi traders gave Democrats a 93% chance of taking the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate; Polymarket priced those outcomes at 94.5% and 75.5%. Nearly $1.9 billion in election-related contracts had traded on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Monday, according to an analysis by The Washington Post. Following the result, $BTC fell to about $75,695 before trading near $77,607 in early Wednesday trading, up 1.3% over 24 hours and just below its 24-hour high of $77,965. Coinbase (COIN) rose 5.53% and Robinhood (HOOD) rose 2.19% in post-election trading, while Bitcoin and XRP edged higher.