Election Week Brings $BTC a $77K Cliffhanger as ETF Outflows Turn the Heat 🗳️

Bitcoin ($BTC) fell below $77,000 on October 30 before recovering above $78,000 on Monday, while institutional ETF withdrawals and bearish positioning added pressure ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections. Ethereum ($ETH) rebounded from $2,200 to around $2,287, but weekly flows remained negative.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.2 million on October 30, erasing inflows from the previous four trading sessions and leaving approximately $202 million in net withdrawals for the week. Ethereum funds recorded $431.4 million in outflows over five consecutive trading days, up from $220.7 million. Institutional investors also withdrew a net $515 million from US Bitcoin ETFs in October 2026, according to SoSoValue. Bitcoin’s estimated on-chain average cost basis reached $74,800.

Bitunix identified a $201 million leveraged Bitcoin short on Hyperliquid as of October 29, while Rekt Capital warned that $BTC’s failure to break beyond $78,500 could expose levels below $76,000. After the Wall Street opened Monday, $BTC slipped below $78,000 as WTI crude oil fell to $95.15 per barrel, its lowest since Oct. 15, and hopes for a US-Iran peace deal failed to generate a broader risk rally. Gold extended daily gains to 2% after recovering from 13-month lows of $3,891 per troy ounce following a US stock sell-off triggered by tech earnings data.

The election could influence the future of the CLARITY Act, Washington’s proposed cryptocurrency regulatory framework, which failed to advance in the Senate in September. The legislation faces disagreements extending beyond party lines, regardless of which party gains control of Congress. Crypto investors are also monitoring Binance’s response to a record $6.3 billion hack: customers withdrew a net $3.64 billion after the attack, while the exchange said withdrawals were stabilizing and approximately 95% of stolen assets had been replaced using company resources.

October’s market performance was broadly negative. Only 2 of the top 20 cryptocurrencies finished the month in the green: $XMR rose 9.99% and $LEO gained 4.07%. $RAIN fell 48.47%, followed by $XLM at 25.12%, while $BTC dropped 7.30% and $ETH declined 16.04%. “Well, that wasn't the Uptober we were hoping for!” the market summary read.