Election drama over, Bitcoin’s bounce meets an ETF exodus: The blockchain chose plot twists 🧃

Bitcoin ($BTC) recovered to $77,883.88 after falling just below $76,000 as reports indicated Democrats were winning control of both chambers of Congress, but U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.16 billion in withdrawals across three sessions. The rebound took $BTC to $78,500 as crypto markets recovered alongside U.S. stock futures, while Nasdaq futures pared their decline to 28,200 points, down 0.3% after falling more than 2% earlier.

The market’s reaction initially reflected concern that a Democratic-controlled Congress could impede pro-crypto legislation, including the CLARITY Act, which failed to advance in the Senate in September. “Bitcoin dropped initially in response to the Democratic sweep of the midterm elections, but has since recovered as a clear outcome resolves political uncertainty,” TDX Strategies founder Dick Lo told CoinDesk. Paradigm’s Nicolas Quatravaux said, “The result itself wasn’t really a surprise. Polymarket had a Democratic win above 75% for a while. So overnight was less about the outcome and more about the uncertainty going away,” adding that election day produced about $660m notional of $BTC options blocks, more than double the previous day, with roughly $420m of calls bought against about $105m sold. Traders also bought $230 million worth of bitcoin call options, while others sold options near the low to benefit from protective positions and elevated volatility.

ETF selling remained pronounced despite the price recovery. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.2 million on October 30, erasing inflows from the previous four trading sessions, followed by withdrawals of $398.6 million on November 2 and $115.6 million on November 3. Weekly flows reversed from a $301.2M inflow to a $202.4M outflow, while Ethereum funds saw outflows widen from $220.7M to $431.4M over five consecutive trading days. Institutional investors withdrew a net $515 million from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs in October 2026. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led Tuesday’s withdrawals with $95 million, and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust lost another $52.6 million.

Market conditions extended the volatility surrounding the November 3 vote. Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000 on October 30 before recovering above $78,000 on Monday, while Ethereum ($ETH) bounced from $2,200 to around $2,287. Rekt Capital analysis said $BTC failed to break beyond $78,500, opening the door to levels below $76,000, and a 7% slide in oil failed to generate a broader crypto rally. West Texas Intermediate crude reached $95.15 per barrel, its lowest since Oct. 15, as crypto traders shrugged off hopes for a US-Iran peace deal. Gold extended daily gains to 2% after recovering from 13-month lows of $3,891 per troy ounce following a U.S. stock sell-off triggered by tech earnings data.

Bitcoin’s estimated on-chain average cost basis climbed to $74,800, while Bitunix Analysts identified a $201 million leveraged Bitcoin short on Hyperliquid as of October 29. The largest crypto exchange was also addressing a record $6.3 billion hack: Binance said withdrawals were stabilizing, approximately 95% of stolen assets had been replaced using company resources, and customers had withdrawn a net $3.64 billion after the attack. Only two of the top 20 cryptocurrencies ended October in the green, with $XMR up 9.99% and $LEO up 4.07%; $RAIN fell 48.47%, $XLM fell 25.12%, $BTC dropped 7.30%, and $ETH fell 16.04%.

With election uncertainty easing, DWF Labs’ Martin Lee said, “With the results now confirmed, that uncertainty is gone, giving market participants confidence to re-enter the market. We're also seeing the same price action on S&P and Nasdaq on Hyperliquid.”