Coinbase’s $719M turnaround rides crypto markups while insiders queue up $2.2B

Coinbase returned to profit with third-quarter net income of $719 million, or $2.51 per diluted share, as analysts had expected a loss of 15 cents per share, according to Zacks. About $715 million of the profit came from gains on crypto Coinbase holds as an investment, while adjusted net income excluding investment gains was $78 million. Total revenue was $1.22 billion, flat from the second quarter and down 35% from a year earlier.

Transaction revenue fell 1% to $590 million and beat the roughly $527 million analysts expected as crypto volatility reached multiyear lows and marketwide trading volume declined. Prediction markets crossed $200 million in annualized revenue, with daily traders increasing more than 60% from the prior quarter and revenue compounding 82% per quarter since launch. CEO Brian Armstrong said the product kept “growing even through slower sports months,” while CFO Alesia Haas said, “Prediction markets are adding another revenue stream and are less correlated to crypto volatility.”

Subscription and services revenue rose 3% to $570 million, led by $307 million from stablecoins. Average USDC held in Coinbase products reached a record $22 billion, paid Coinbase One subscribers hit an all-time high after rising 24% from a year earlier, and Coinbase’s share of global crypto trading volume climbed to 10.7% for its fourth consecutive quarterly gain. Adjusted EBITDA rose 60% from the prior quarter to $333 million, and through Oct. 25, fourth-quarter transaction revenue stood at about $165 million.

Coinbase also reduced its 2026 adjusted expense guidance by another $100 million at the midpoint to between $4.15 billion and $4.3 billion following May cost reductions. The results followed a $394 million first-quarter loss and an estimate miss in the second quarter. Shares closed Thursday at $160.59, down 1.1% before the results and little changed in after-hours trading, leaving the stock more than 55% below its 52-week high of $361.40.

The same filing disclosed plans by Armstrong, co-founder Fred Ehrsam and President Emilie Choi to sell up to 13.6 million shares over 14 months, covering about 6% of Coinbase’s 223.7 million Class A shares and worth roughly $2.2 billion at Thursday’s $160.59 close. Armstrong adopted a plan on August 12 covering up to 8.17 million shares between November 16 and October 2027; Ehrsam’s plan covers 3.87 million shares, while Choi’s covers 1.56 million through 2027. The Rule 10b5-1 plans use undisclosed price thresholds, and Coinbase still has $1.96 billion in buyback authorization. Form 4 filings from November 16 will show whether the insiders sell. Separately, William Blair, a Chicago-based investment bank founded in 1935, cut its Coinbase revenue and earnings forecasts while retaining its “outperform” rating, stating, “We think investors should stay involved with Coinbase,” as COIN and CRCL each rose roughly 3–4% on Wednesday.