Bitcoin’s $11B options clock is ticking as max pain moves into the chat

About $11 billion in Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire Friday on Deribit as $BTC trades near $81,500, a day after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while two officials voted to raise them. Traders who sell these contracts may buy or sell Bitcoin to hedge their positions as the price moves, potentially adding volatility without a news-driven catalyst.

Friday’s batch covers about 135,000 Bitcoin in contracts, comprising roughly 88,700 calls and 46,500 puts, according to Deribit data. That represents about one-third of all Bitcoin options open on the exchange and is roughly 70% more than the $6.4 billion that expired in August. The $11 billion figure is notional value rather than the amount changing hands.

About 86% of the contracts are out of the money, while settlement at current levels would affect roughly $130 million, or about 1% of the headline total. Deribit’s put-to-call ratio stands at 0.52, meaning calls outnumber puts nearly two to one. The exchange also identifies $78,000 as the max pain price, approximately $3,500 below the market, though max pain describes positioning rather than predicting where $BTC will settle.

The largest call concentrations are at $95,000 and $100,000, about 16% and 23% above current prices, while the biggest put cluster is at $70,000, roughly 14% below. More than 6,000 contracts changed hands during Friday’s expiry, making it the most heavily traded Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit over the previous 24 hours. Friday’s batch is smaller than the $15 billion expiry in March but about three times the $3.6 billion expiry from April 2021.

The Federal Reserve maintained its target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, with expectations increasing for another hike this year. The next listed expiry is December 25, when about 135,500 Bitcoin in options are already set to expire—roughly the same size as Friday’s batch and about two weeks after the Fed meets December 8-9. The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.