Copper Catches a Break from Anthropic’s AI Move—Now It’s Waiting for the Signal 📈

Copper climbed back above its April support trendline on Tuesday, reversing last week’s breakdown as AI stocks recovered following Anthropic’s public IPO filing. The metal remains about 3.5% below its September record, while growing warehouse inventories in the US could constrain further gains.

Anthropic, the developer of Claude, published its filing on Monday. The Nasdaq gained 0.8% and Nvidia rose 2.4% as the filing lifted chip stocks. The filing lists roughly $587 billion in compute and lease obligations, linking the AI expansion driving data-center investment to copper demand. The relationship also worked in reverse on October 22, when a tech selloff pushed copper below its April trendline. “...the recent rout in AI stocks hit copper prices hard, reflecting just how sensitive the metal has become towards the AI sector,” said James Harte, analyst at Tickmill.

On the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month copper rose 1.1% to $14,487.50 per tonne, its highest level since October 16, according to Reuters. China’s Yangshan premium, the fee buyers pay to import refined copper, reached $188 per tonne, a nearly 13-year high, while Shanghai exchange inventories fell more than 25% in a week as smelters paused for maintenance. ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey expects the shortage to support prices, but Sucden Financial said growing US stockpiles continue to cap the headline price.

Copper trades near $6.72 per pound after failing within days to reach the 0.382 Fibonacci support near $6.31. It is pressing against the $6.64 to $6.72 resistance zone that capped October rallies; a daily close above it could open a path toward the $6.95 record, according to the XCU daily chart from Tradingview. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 53 and is rising, with the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday and Big Tech earnings this week set to test the AI bid. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, called the Anthropic IPO listing “a referendum on the entire AI trade.”