$BTC’s quantum clock ticks as institutions wait for a credible escape plan

Concerns about quantum computing are already limiting institutional investment in Bitcoin, according to Stacks founder Muneeb Ali. Ali said uncertainty could lead risk-averse institutional investors to delay large Bitcoin purchases until developers establish a credible path toward quantum-resistant security. “There is already a ceiling on the growth of Bitcoin because of quantum fears,” Ali said during an interview on Cointelegraph’s Chain Reaction Podcast. Ali co-founded Stacks, a Bitcoin layer-2 network that brings smart contracts and decentralized applications to Bitcoin and uses it as its underlying settlement layer.

Ali warned Bitcoin could enter a riskier period if developers fail to make meaningful progress toward quantum-resistant security by 2028. He said upgrades typically take years to implement, followed by additional time for users to move their holdings to new addresses, and pointed to 2030 as a target for transitioning to quantum-resistant security, citing guidance from the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Advances in artificial intelligence could accelerate the development of quantum computers and potentially bring that timeline forward to 2029, Ali said.

Ali acknowledged that some Bitcoin proponents believe the quantum computing threat remains distant and concerns are overblown. He argued, however, that disagreements over the urgency of the threat could undermine investor confidence without a credible upgrade roadmap. Despite his concerns, Ali said a sufficiently powerful quantum computer would more likely emerge from a major research laboratory than an unknown attacker. He suggested companies such as Google or Microsoft would have little incentive to use the technology to steal Bitcoin given the potential legal consequences. “If Bitcoin gets hit, everyone gets hit downstream as well,” he said, adding that a quantum security threat to Bitcoin would affect the broader cryptocurrency industry, including projects developing their own protections.

Developers are also exploring ways to protect Bitcoin against quantum attacks. In September, StarkWare reported that researchers had reduced the estimated computing cost of preparing an experimental quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction by 79%, following a weeklong optimization challenge. The approach requires no changes to Bitcoin’s consensus rules, but the latest cost reductions have been demonstrated only in benchmark tests. StarkWare has described the technology as a last-resort measure and continues to advocate for a protocol-level upgrade as a longer-term solution.