Bitcoin’s $80,000 standoff: Maelstrom exits its bets, oil cools and the Fed eyes the next move

Oct 26, 2026, 7:24 a.m. EDT — Bitcoin ($BTC) at $84,459.46 steadied near $80,400 after dipping to around $79,300 during the Asian morning, remaining little changed since midnight UTC. Altcoins were mixed, with ether ($ETH) at $2,490.55 dropping 0.2% and the DeFi index (DFX) the only CoinDesk index to gain as uniswap and ethena rose. The Fed, which raised rates in September, was due to decide Wednesday, with CME’s FedWatch tool showing a 90% chance of no change and around an 80% chance of another increase in December.

Arthur Hayes set the tone over the weekend by saying his Maelstrom fund sold its entire directional book, including 6,400 ether, because of macro and geopolitical risk. S&P 500 index futures rose around 0.3% after Friday’s selloff in U.S. stocks, while U.S. crude fell around 2% to near $101 a barrel and Brent slipped to around $110. Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran on Sunday, and President Donald Trump said there would be no strike that day, though he kept the option open.

Spot bitcoin ETF flows remained in focus after $138 million of outflows on Friday took the two-day exit to $772 million, according to Farside Investors.

Open interest in crypto futures rose 0.85% to $139.9 billion in 24 hours, while volume fell 1.78% and liquidations dropped 71% to $153 million. The long/short taker volume ratio split was 50.34% to 49.66%, showing no tilt. Bitcoin’s price rose 0.20% and open interest rose 0.84%, with only a small amount of money coming in as volume fell 7.21%; ether’s open interest rose 0.45% and its price added 0.23%.

Funding was mildly positive across major cryptocurrencies, with the 24-hour heatmap uniformly green and USDE and TRX at the low end. No heavy premium was being paid to hold longs, leaving demand for leverage unremarkable. ZEC stood apart as open interest grew 8.17%, its price advanced 3.84%, roughly 4% of new money came in and volume rose 19.11%, while funding remained modest at 0.0063%.