Galaxy says $BTC’s bear phase clocked out in June

Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, argued in a report published Monday that Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and the asset has entered an accumulation phase. “Our conclusion is simple: we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin,” he wrote.

Bitcoin traded at around $80,000 on Thursday, 36% below its October 2025 high but 39% above its June 30 low, and briefly slipped below $80,000 to about $79,700 on Sunday, according to CoinGecko. Thorn’s technical case centers on Bitcoin spending 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average before reclaiming it in September; the week ended Oct. 18 marked its fifth straight weekly close above that line. Since 2011, Bitcoin has reclaimed the average after a stretch of 20 weeks or more four times. In each case, the price never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the following year and eventually regained its prior all-time high.

The halving cycle, the roughly four-year event when rewards for Bitcoin miners are cut in half, thereby reducing new supply, points the same way. The three previous cycles bottomed between 777 and 912 days after a halving, and Thursday was day 916. The latest downturn was also the shallowest on record: a 53% drop, compared with declines of 77% to 93% in past cycles. Onchain data appeared to support the thesis, with Bitcoin’s market value never falling below its realized value—the average price at which every coin last moved—for the first time in any bear market. The ratio between the two bottomed at 1.10, compared with lows of 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75 in prior cycles.

Short-term holders, whose coins carried the recovery from $58,525, have an average cost of $74,811 and sit about 9% in profit. The spent-output profit ratio, which tracks whether coins are being sold at a gain, sits at 1.009, suggesting few are cashing out. Long-dormant coins, unmoved for five years or more, have been sold at about 34,000 BTC a month this year, half the 2024 pace. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low after holdings fell just 11% from peak to trough while the price dropped 53%, the report found.

Thorn also argued that the macro case has strengthened. Federal debt has reached $40.44 trillion, fiscal 2026 ended with a $1.99 trillion deficit, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% this month, its highest since 2007. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 sits less than 1% below a record, while Bitcoin would need to rise 53% to reclaim its high. “A bet against stocks and hard assets is a bet on fiat, the one position that makes no sense today,” Thorn wrote.

Bitcoin also landed at the top of one of Wall Street’s most closely watched return forecasts. J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years in its 2027 Long-Term Return Forecast.