93% House, 65% Senate: Polymarket Puts $BTC on Midterm Watch

Polymarket gives Democrats a 93% chance of winning the House and 65% for the Senate, as a CNBC survey finds voters on each side fear what the other party would do with Congress. A recent World Gold Council note maps four policy areas a Democratic Congress could influence, with implications for gold, Bitcoin and stocks. Three of the areas are spending, war funding and AI policy.

A Democratic Congress could limit the White House’s ability to pass deficit-expanding bills, while Edward Jones expects gridlock to make large new fiscal initiatives less likely. The effects on gold could be mixed: smaller deficits could ease fiscal concerns and revive demand for Treasuries and the dollar, weighing on the metal, while pressure to reduce tariffs could cut government revenue and widen the deficit, potentially supporting it. Lower Treasury yields could support stocks by reducing borrowing costs and increasing the present value of future earnings. Edward Jones data also shows the S&P 500 has generally risen after midterm elections since 1970, regardless of which party won. $BTC tends to move opposite the dollar, and Glassnode data shows that inverse correlation at its most negative on record. A firmer dollar from smaller deficits would therefore weigh on $BTC, although the link has weakened at times.

The second policy area is war funding: 21% of Democrats in the CNBC survey worry a Republican Congress would continue military efforts in Iran, compared with 11% of Republicans who worry Democrats would end them. Trump recently ruled out imminent military action against Iran, while the World Gold Council argues a Democratic Congress could restrict war funding and push toward de-escalation. Brent crude trades near $114, and higher energy costs have lifted inflation worries. Traders see about an 80% chance of a December Fed hike. Gold would benefit from de-escalation, the council says, as cheaper oil eases inflation expectations, yields and the dollar. The metal fell below $4,000 on Friday, its lowest since mid-July, and traded at $4,010.48 on Monday. Stocks would gain if cheaper oil softens yields and inflation fears. $BTC has swung on Iran headlines this month, with escalation news cutting it 2% to 5% intraday. A deal that weakens the dollar could help, while $BTC now trades at $79,894, down 1.2% in 24 hours.

On AI policy, the World Gold Council says a Democratic Congress could scale back federal support for AI or tighten its regulation. In the CNBC survey, 19% of Democrats fear a Republican Congress would fail to regulate AI and data centers, while 6% of Republicans fear Democrats would overregulate them. AI policy is the third of the four areas mapped in the note.