Trump’s pause oiled down the drums, but crypto tracks the $25 war-premium clock

US crude remained above $100 after President Donald Trump called off an immediate Iran strike, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) touching $101.69 on Sunday night. The level was about 53% higher than before the US-Israeli war began, while Brent, the global benchmark, sat near $116, according to Trading Economics. Goldman Sachs estimated nearly $25 of that price was a war risk premium even as Gulf exports recovered.

Trump said Sunday that no strike would happen that day and suggested Washington might still complete its military campaign or strike a deal, Al Jazeera reported. Qatari mediators visited Tehran, where President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran should still pursue a peace deal; Iran’s parliament speaker said Washington miscalculated in launching the war and must find a way out.

The Saudi-led coalition said it had destroyed missiles and drones fired at the kingdom by Yemen’s Houthi group. Shiptracker Kpler counted at least 18 reported vessel attacks over two weeks, according to an Oct. 19 note. Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) wrote on October 25, 2026: “BREAKING: Oil crashed -1.7% on the news that President Trump cancelled today's strikes on Iran.”

Separately, Washington and Israel reportedly drafted Iran strike plans for after the Nov. 3 US midterm elections. WTI settled at $67.02 on Feb. 27, a day before the war began. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent at $90 in December, with escalation the main upside risk; with Brent about $13.50 above WTI, a $90 Brent would imply WTI in the mid-$70s.

Dutch bank ING said the premium would erode slowly if flows continued uninhibited and saw no sign of that yet. Higher crude feeds fuel bills and inflation, with US consumer prices rising 3.7% in the year to September. That matters for stocks and crypto because stickier inflation can keep interest rates high and weigh on risk assets; attention now centers on whether Qatari mediation delivers before another attack on Gulf shipping or Saudi sites.