Safe Havens, Sad Returns: Bitcoin and Gold Top 2026’s Worst-Return List So Far

Bitcoin ($BTC) and gold are the two worst-performing major assets of 2026, down 7.3% and 7.5%, respectively, according to Creative Planning strategist Charlie Bilello. He said no calendar year in his records has put the pair last together. Investors buy both as protection against inflation and market stress, but this year a basket of commodities gained 52.5%, US large-cap stocks rose 12.3%, and short-term Treasury bills returned 2.9%.

Bilello’s table ranks 21 asset classes every year since 2011 using data through October 23, and only 57% of them are positive in 2026. Bitcoin and gold rank last among those 21 major asset classes in 2026 through October 23.

Gold’s slide follows a 63.7% gain in 2025, its best year in the table. Spot gold climbed above $5,400 an ounce in early 2026 before closing Friday at $3,995.81, after falling below $4,000 for the first time since July. Bitcoin is heading for a second losing year after a 6.3% drop in 2025. It trades at $80,472, according to BeInCrypto’s Bitcoin price data, about 35% below its peak above $126,000 last October.

Neither gold nor Bitcoin pays interest, so higher rates mean giving up income that bonds or cash would earn. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, touched $116 a barrel on Friday as US-Iran tensions escalated. Costlier oil feeds inflation, which can push the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates; the Fed announces its next decision on Wednesday. Traders already price a 68% chance of a December hike, according to CME FedWatch data, ahead of a busy Fed week. ING analysts said gold failed to benefit from a tech stock selloff this week, saying the market “…appears more focused on higher oil prices and what it could mean for inflation.”

Over the long run, Bilello’s figures show Bitcoin has returned 120.6% a year on average since 2011, the highest in his table, while gold has returned 6.3%. In an October 25, 2026 post, Bilello wrote: “Bitcoin (-7.3%) and Gold (-7.5%) are the two worst performing major assets so far in 2026. This is something we haven't seen before in any calendar year. pic.twitter.com/MkJ1Phtndl — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 25, 2026” With two months left, the year-end ranking can still change.