Goldman trims the KOSPI target by 25%, but 9,000 is still very much a moon shot 🌕

Goldman Sachs has cut its 12-month target for South Korea’s KOSPI by 25%, to 9,000 from 12,000, returning the bank to where it stood before its June 3 upgrade. The bank estimates that chip valuations now imply a 65% fall in 2027 sector earnings and calls that view excessively pessimistic.

The KOSPI closed at 5,550.30 on October 23, according to Google Finance, and its 2026 gain has shrunk to 28.79% from about 116% at the June peak. Even after the cut, the 9,000 target implies about 62% upside from the October 23 close. Memory chipmakers make up about half the index, and their shares have kept falling through record profit guidance as investors appear to be pricing in a future downturn in memory chip profits.

Samsung Electronics guided a third-quarter operating profit of about 107.4 trillion won on October 8, about 20% above the second quarter, but its shares fell 2.42% that day to 262,000 won. They have since dropped about 18%, closing at 215,500 won on October 23. SK Hynix closed at 1.277 million won, about 57% below its 52-week high.

In an October 21, 2026 post, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer wrote: “With the KOSPI index having led the boom higher earlier this year, it’s noteworthy that it is barely hanging on to a potential head-and-shoulders neckline.” His chart places it near 5,451, about 2% below the October 23 close. Separately, Global Markets Investor estimated that retail investors’ net purchases this year carry an average entry level near 6,550, leaving the typical retail position about 15% down before counting leveraged bets.

SK Hynix holds its third-quarter call on October 28, while Samsung Electronics reports full results with division figures on October 29. Management comments on 2027 pricing and orders may matter more than third-quarter profits, with the outlook serving as the first test of whether the market’s 65% assumption is as harsh as Goldman Sachs argues.