Bitcoin’s Weekend Plot Twist: $80,000 Test, $83,000 Escape, $77,876 Downside

Benjamin Cowen warned that a Bitcoin ($BTC) weekly close below $83,000 on October 25 would strengthen his bearish outlook for the rest of 2026. The cryptocurrency enters the weekend after failing to hold $83,000, putting $80,000 in focus; a sustained recovery above $83,000 would weaken the bearish case.

During one four-hour selloff after the latest failed rally, long positions accounted for $91.19 million of $95.22 million in crypto liquidations. Glassnode estimates that companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets paid about $80,000 per coin on average. Falling below that level would put the average corporate treasury position into a loss. It would not automatically force companies to sell, but it could weaken confidence.

Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) wrote on October 24, 2026: “A plausible path to consider (in order). Becomes void if Bitcoin gets and holds back above $83k -Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again) -Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25) -Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28) -PCE comes in hot (Oct 29) -Oil spikes over the Iran war (~$120) -Long end…”

A separate BeInCrypto analysis identifies $77,876 as the next downside level if selling persists, followed by a support zone between roughly $76,700 and $72,500. US spot Bitcoin ETFs also lost about $322 million on October 22, suggesting institutional buying has weakened.

The Federal Reserve meets October 27–28, with Cowen expecting interest rates to stay unchanged, and September inflation data follows on October 29. Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday as Middle East supply fears intensified; expensive energy could keep inflation elevated, while rising Treasury yields make speculative investments less attractive. Binance Research puts Bitcoin’s average decline during previous US midterm election years at 56%, but the record covers only three Bitcoin cycles, making it a warning rather than a reliable prediction. The immediate test is whether buyers defend $80,000; losing that level could expose Bitcoin to another wave of selling just as November’s US midterm elections approach.