Bitcoin’s midterm script got a plot twist: the dip came 125 days early

Bitcoin’s lowest price so far in 2026 broke the timing of its previous midterm cycle, touching $57,850 on July 1—125 days before the Nov. 3 U.S. election—rather than arriving after Election Day. Major bear-market lows previously followed the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms: bitcoin bottomed in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively.

With the election 10 days away and BTC $84,459.46 on Oct. 23, 2026, bitcoin had recovered to roughly $81,455 by Oct. 22, about 40% above its July 1 low. The recovery has unfolded despite bitcoin falling about 6% over the past 30 days; over 90 days, it remained up 26%.

Historical returns in BTCUSD (TradingView) show bitcoin fell approximately 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and 37% before the 2022 vote.

Technology stocks have shown a less consistent election pattern. The Invesco QQQ Trust fell roughly 23% from the end of September to its December 2018 low, with much of the decline occurring after election day, and dropped 17% in the three months preceding the 2022 vote; it gained 17% over the six months before the 2014 midterms. QQQ (TradingView) and bitcoin were both down roughly 6% over the past 30 days, while QQQ’s pullback followed an all-time high of $762.86 on Oct. 6. Over 90 days, QQQ gained 3%, compared with bitcoin’s 26% gain.

Across the cited periods, bitcoin’s recurring midterm weakness coincided more consistently with its own market cycles than with elections, while technology stocks displayed a less consistent pattern. The 2026 low and subsequent recovery mark a departure from the post-election bottom timing recorded in 2015, 2018 and 2022.