Bitcoin’s $1B ETF Sprint Hits a Wall Street Speed Bump

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed a $1.07 billion inflow run from Monday through Wednesday before retreating $773.5 million over Thursday and Friday, leaving the funds up roughly $301 million for the week but down about $314 million for October. Monday, October 19, brought $526.6 million in net inflows—the largest session since September 22, when the funds attracted $714.75 million—after Bitcoin ETFs had lost a net $617.17 million earlier in the month. Decrypt’s tracker put Monday’s figure at $526.7 million and Wednesday’s at $524.8 million. The three-session rebound lifted October inflows to roughly $460 million before Thursday’s $635.6 million outflow, listed as $635.5 million by SoSoValue, erased most of the gain. Friday added $137.9 million in redemptions, cumulative net inflows fell to $57.6 billion and total net assets stood at $100.2 billion.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for the entire $526.7 million Monday inflow, while the other 11 Bitcoin ETFs recorded no net inflows, according to SoSoValue. A later Friday session brought $82.4 million in outflows, capping a week in which redemptions outweighed inflows on three of five trading days and leaving Bitcoin ETFs down a net $228.6 million. Bitcoin funds debuted in January 2024, while Ethereum funds followed that July and Solana funds arrived late last year. Ether ETFs lost $110.6 million Thursday, gained $4.4 million Friday and shed about $221 million over the week, leaving October down roughly $1.18 billion and cumulative net inflows at $12.7 billion. Solana ETFs lost $8.9 million Thursday, recorded no net flow Friday and remained down about $68 million for the month.

Bitcoin traded near $81,460 on Friday, flat over 24 hours and down 0.4% for the week, before slipping 1.1% over 24 hours to about $80,490 on Saturday and falling 1.2% over the week, according to CoinGecko. Earlier, it had reached a weekly high near $85,000 and traded near $84,500 on Wednesday, up 2.5% over 24 hours. Ethereum fell 2.6% to roughly $2,344 and Solana dropped 2.8% to about $101 on Saturday, while total crypto market capitalization slipped 1.2% to $2.79 trillion. Bitcoin’s 30-day decline stood at 4.8%, compared with 11.4% for Ethereum and 10.4% for Solana; over a longer period, Bitcoin closed a week down about 2%, held $80,000 support and was down 1.75% since October 1 following a 42.71% third-quarter gain.

Technical levels drew attention as Bitcoin traded at $82,060 on Monday, down 0.44% over 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets. The price moved above the approximately $81,500 average paid by U.S. spot ETF investors, according to Glassnode, after falling below that cost basis the previous week. Ash Crypto noted that Bitcoin had closed above its 50-week moving average for five straight weeks, with that average near $76,100, and identified $80,000 and $76,000 as support levels. The analyst watched $84,000 and $87,500 on the upside, while Glassnode marked $88,000 as the cost basis of six-to-12-month buyers and said a daily close above $88,000 alongside renewed ETF inflows would signal buyers absorbing that supply. Glassnode data cited in BeInCrypto’s analysis placed the largest Binance spot bid block at $80,000.

The weakness followed a broader market decline in which the Nasdaq fell 5% over one week and the semiconductor index dropped more than 11%. Oil climbed above $111 a barrel as AI stocks slid, dragging the S&P 500 and global markets lower. The Federal Reserve next meets Oct. 27-28, with traders anticipating a “hold,” while persistent inflation, elevated Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening weighed on risk assets. Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, said the drop was "primarily driven by a broader correction in global risk assets," with growing skepticism toward AI-related technology stocks a major factor. "Investors are not necessarily questioning the long-term prospects of artificial intelligence, but rather whether current elevated valuations can be justified by future earnings and cash flows," Sun told Decrypt. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and the unwinding of leveraged positions "further amplified the downward pressure," he said.

Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said Bitcoin had come under pressure alongside tech stocks. "Persistent inflation, elevated Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening have reduced enthusiasm for speculative assets," she told Decrypt. Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at quantitative investment firm Algoz, said $80,000 was psychologically important but warned that a break below it could be misleading because of low weekend trading volumes. He identified $82,000 as a level needed to support the bull case and said remaining below it "could see a broader pullback in the coming weeks while the macro uncertainty remains." He also identified $75,000 as a key downside support level and said volatility would remain elevated. “The bull case for Bitcoin is not dead but it is keeping its head below the parapet whilst so many stray bullets are flying across the globe,” Wundke added.

Prediction-market sentiment remained cautious on Myriad, developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan. Traders gave Bitcoin a 20% chance of topping $87,500 before October ended, a 9% chance of reaching $90,000 and a 35% chance of falling to $77,500; the odds later shifted to 17% for $87,500, 9% for $90,000 and 32% for $77,500 before ending the week at 10% for $87,500, 43% for $77,500 and 18% for $75,000. Ethereum retained a 61.3% chance of reaching $3,000 before $1,500, while Solana’s odds of reaching $160 before $40 fell from 54.9% to 51.6%. J.P. Morgan Asset Management also projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years in its first long-term forecast for the asset, while cautioning about 55% volatility.

A Galaxy Research report later identified hedge funds and banks as the drivers behind most institutional selling in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Institutions filing quarterly 13F reports with the SEC held 355,000 BTC at the end of September 2025, before Bitcoin’s all-time high, but holdings had fallen to 307,000 BTC by June 2026, a 14% decline. Millennium Management, Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Capula Management, Farallon Capital, D.E. Shaw, Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, Symmetry Investments and Tudor Investment together cut exposure by 68,000 BTC, roughly $5.4 billion at current prices, trimming positions by between 29% and 100%. The remaining roughly 2,200 filers added about 20,000 BTC, worth roughly $1.6 billion, with buyers including Morgan Stanley’s wealth management arm, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council.

Galaxy head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said many sellers used a cash-and-carry strategy, buying spot ETF shares while shorting CME Bitcoin futures to capture the basis. The front-month basis averaged 7.9% annualized in the 30 days before Bitcoin’s high, 3.9 percentage points above three-month Treasury bills, before falling to 4.8% in the 30 days to Oct. 21, just 0.6 points above bills. After fees, rolling costs and margin, Galaxy estimated the trade now earns about 1.5 points over cash. “That arithmetic, not the price, is why the multi-strategy desks left,” Thorn wrote. Asset managers’ net long CME Bitcoin futures position fell from 43,300 BTC to 18,400 BTC, while leveraged funds’ net short position declined from 71,400 BTC to 30,600 BTC. Open interest fell 28% in Bitcoin terms and 51% in dollar terms, although November and December futures continued to price in 6.3% to 6.5%, about 2 points over bills before costs. Thorn said that slim return did not compensate for tail risk after the basis inverted to negative 31% annualized in December 2022.