Katie Stockton Drops 3 Bearish Triggers — Crypto Markets Stay Glued to the Tape 📉

The share of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average fell to 21%, matching the March low, even as Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner Katie Stockton told CNBC's "Squawk Box" that the broader trend remains intact and that "you can't argue against a bull cycle right now." Stockton said support held into last Friday, which she suspects marked a short-term low for chip stocks, though she characterized the setup as somewhat fragile.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped 11.4% last week, the steepest weekly decline since April 2025, according to BTIG, which has warned the slide could extend into 2027. Stockton identified three triggers that would push her into a more bearish stance: a simultaneous breakdown of support across many individual stocks, a widening of credit spreads beyond current levels, and a decisive breakout in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) above resistance such as its 200-day moving average.

Credit stress is visible but contained, Stockton said. CoreWeave, which rents AI computing capacity and finances its data-center buildout with debt, saw its shares fall roughly 16% on Oct. 14, after which investors demanded about 14.8% to hold its 2032 notes. London Stock Exchange Group data shows Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle issued more than $228 billion of bonds through Oct. 13, leaving the four names exposed if spreads widen further. Stockton said she nevertheless views current stress as somewhat localized.

Outside equities, Stockton expects the 10-year Treasury yield to stall near 5.25% for weeks before resuming higher. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate stood at 7.40% on Oct. 15, up from 6.95% on Sept. 17. WisdomTree's Jeremy Siegel has separately warned of a potential Nasdaq drawdown of up to 30% if AI-related spending disappoints, highlighting the cross-asset stakes as Stockton's three signals head into focus.