Bitcoin's $80K Hurdle Faces Oil-Powered Audition 🎭

Bitcoin is trading near $82,500 after recovering from a brief dip below $80,000 last week, when Thursday's selloff drove the price to $79,770. The rebound now faces a fresh test on Wednesday, when the US Energy Information Administration releases crude oil inventory data that could reignite inflation concerns. September consumer prices rose 3.7% annually, exceeding the expected 3.6%, and stronger producer-price and retail-sales figures have added to worries that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again. Markets are currently pricing in roughly an 87% probability that rates will remain unchanged on October 28, though one measure shows expectations for a hike as high as 15%.

The macro pressure has spread beyond crypto, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 2% on Friday and closing its worst week since June. AMD dropped 6% and Micron fell 5.6% on the day, while CoreWeave, a "neocloud" that rents AI computing power, lost about 24% over the week. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.08% and the 2-year at 4.72%. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, trades near $108 a barrel after weekend attacks on Persian Gulf tankers and Russian crude facilities, while the producer price index jumped 6.3% annually, the biggest rise since 2022. A larger-than-expected decline in oil inventories could push energy prices higher and renew pressure on risk assets; an unexpected build could ease those concerns.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin has yet to show a convincing turnaround. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $228 million in net outflows last week, according to SoSo Value data for October 12 to October 16. Only 40% of the 300 cryptocurrencies tracked by Bitunix gained last week, with a median return of −2.03%, though Basic Attention Token (BAT) surged 99.43% amid interest in its recent developments. According to Bitunix analysts, $80,000 remains the immediate support level for Bitcoin; a sustained break could trigger another test of last week's lows, while a recovery above $84,000–$85,000 alongside stronger ETF inflows would signal renewed buying demand. Bitcoin ($BTC) trades at $82,164 on the daily chart, up 0.18%, sitting on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $81,603 and within a "golden zone" between $81,847 and $82,305. The 50-day exponential moving average sits at about $80,548, above the 200-day EMA at about $75,932, with current price above both.

Elsewhere, Bitmine Immersion Technologies extended its weekly Ethereum buying streak, adding 12,535 ETH worth about $30 million even as the broader selloff battered crypto prices. The NYSE-listed company said Monday its holdings now total 6,041,481 ETH ($ETH), valued at roughly $14 billion.