AI's $145 Billion Set for Its Quarterly Reality Check 📊

Meta, Tesla, Netflix, and SpaceX are scheduled to report quarterly results Tuesday and Wednesday after the US market closes, with Nasdaq valuing the first three at about $3.6 trillion combined. Forecasts, rather than beats, have driven recent stock moves. In July, Netflix topped profit estimates by a cent, then fell about 9% after hours on a weaker outlook.

Capital expenditure guidance will be the central focus for three of the four companies. Meta plans $130 billion to $145 billion of equipment and data center spending in 2026, according to its results. In the second quarter, $31.1 billion of spending left Meta $784 million in free cash flow, the cash left after investment, and its shares fell over 7% after hours as profit fell short of forecasts. Meta also expects a roughly $10 billion legal charge this quarter tied to a settlement worth up to $18 billion over claims its apps harmed children.

SpaceX spent $18.4 billion in the second quarter, $15.8 billion of it on AI, and lost $541 million, according to its filing. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said the AI unit turned a $1.1 billion profit on an adjusted basis, with much of that money flowing to chipmaker Nvidia. SpaceX is now reportedly seeking $40 billion in debt to buy its chips. Tesla already beat delivery forecasts, handing over 486,532 cars, though in July it reported $0.33 per share against a $0.55 estimate as margins slipped.

For SpaceX, the test is progress toward a revenue target Elon Musk set in August. "we are expecting to reach a $100 billion-plus ARR in December of this year," Elon Musk stated. ARR, or annual recurring revenue, measures a yearly sales pace. For Tesla, analysts tracked by Nasdaq expect $0.21 per share, down from $0.37 a year ago, with margins in focus.

Netflix's report carries a different lens. It forecast $12.86 billion in revenue and about $3 billion in 2026 ad sales, according to its shareholder letter. Last week, strong bank earnings failed to lift bank shares, a gap Jim Cramer flagged, and this week's cohort of AI spenders arrives under the same scrutiny.