Bitwise shoots for $100K, LO:TECH shrugs: Bitcoin's year-end is a numbers game with two scorekeepers 🎲

Bitcoin could revisit $100,000 before the end of 2026 as institutional adoption and demand for hard assets outweigh near-term economic uncertainty, according to crypto asset manager Bitwise, though rival analysts expect a narrower trading range as inflation and interest-rate expectations continue to weigh on the market. Bitcoin ($BTC) traded at $82,001.05.

Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, said three longer-term drivers underpin the bullish case: institutional buying through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate purchases; demand for hard assets amid inflation, rising government debt and currency debasement; and clearer regulation that reduces the perceived risk of crypto ownership. "We believe bitcoin ends the year higher, potentially above $100,000," Rasmussen told CoinDesk. "In our view, these tailwinds significantly outweigh the potential headwinds." He nonetheless flagged volatility around a possible late-October Federal Reserve rate increase and the November U.S. midterm elections, noting that a breakout would be difficult in that environment.

Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at London-based crypto trading and market data firm LO:TECH, took a more cautious stance, projecting an $85,000–$95,000 trading range into year-end. "Macro has gone against Bitcoin all year, with the Fed hiking in September and a December hike priced at roughly 75%," McCarthy said. "This will continue to weigh on bitcoin." The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September, and consumer price data released Oct. 14 showed headline inflation rising 0.6% month-over-month and core prices up 0.3%, with gasoline accounting for more than half of the headline increase.

Other market watchers pointed to shorter-term dynamics. Laser Digital said a short squeeze remains possible if momentum builds, and CoinShares said any sustained breakout above the $100,000 level would require renewed buying from market participants. The competing year-end targets underscore how Bitcoin's 2026 trajectory now hinges as much on the Federal Reserve's next moves and October's inflation prints as on the pace of ETF inflows and corporate treasury accumulation.