Korea Has 2-3 Years to Pivot Before China Floods the RAM 🚰

Elon Musk told X readers that "China will be making a LOT of RAM in 2028," amplifying a South Korean column that argues the country's red-hot memory chip cycle could reverse as soon as 2029 once new capacity comes online. The Tesla CEO shared a summary of a Maeil Business Newspaper op-ed on October 15, 2026, without naming the Chinese producers he expects to drive the surge.

The column frames memory chips as both Korea's biggest current win and its largest structural risk. It points to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as the twin pillars of the export economy and warns Seoul has only two to three years to develop new growth industries before the boom fades. Together, Samsung and SK Hynix account for roughly half of the KOSPI, and a recent disclosure from Chinese rival ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) on a denser DRAM design already dragged on their shares. Counterpoint Research data cited in the reporting put CXMT's share of global DRAM revenue at about 8% in the first quarter.

The scale of the bet is hard to overstate. Gartner expects memory revenue of $837 billion in 2026, equivalent to 54% of global semiconductor sales, up from 27% in 2025, with most of the jump attributed to higher prices. The firm still projects tight supply in 2027 and memory revenue crossing $1 trillion that year, even as new capacity enters the market. The Bank of Korea has separately flagged the AI chip trade as a financial stability concern.

Musk's timing adds a supply-side wildcard to that outlook. He did not identify the Chinese companies behind his 2028 call, but his recent praise of Micron's pricing restraint, including $MU, signals he is tracking memory costs closely. If Chinese DRAM output scales a year earlier than the Maeil column anticipates, oversupply pressure on $DRAM, $SKHY and the broader $EWY complex could arrive before Korea's diversification window closes.