Musk Pegs SpaceX at $100T by 2036, but Only If World Stays Mostly Intact 🚀

Elon Musk said SpaceX will probably top $100 trillion in valuation within 10 years, attaching a single caveat to the forecast: a major world war. The SpaceX CEO posted the projection on X on October 15, writing, "Unless there is a major world war, SpaceX probably gets to >$100T in <10 years." The target is roughly 48 times the company's $2.07 trillion market value at its October 14 close.

The comment came in reply to a clip of Baron Capital founder Ron Baron, who told Columbia Business School he expects SpaceX to be worth "$20 trillion, $30 trillion, $50 trillion" and trade at "thousands of dollars a share." Musk had previously described a $100 trillion SpaceX only as "possible," and replied "Yup" to Baron's assessment. Baron pegged Starlink alone at $14 trillion to $15 trillion over the next decade, calling that segment still at the "very early stages" of growth, and said space-based data centers could be worth several times more.

SpaceX shares have swung sharply since the company went public in the largest IPO on record, peaking at $225.64 within days of the debut before sliding back. Musk briefly became the world's first trillionaire before retreating below that threshold; his net worth slipped under $1 trillion again on October 13, according to Forbes. Last quarter, only Starlink generated an operating profit, while the AI division spent $15.8 billion on infrastructure. To fund that buildout, SpaceX is reportedly seeking $40 billion in additional debt for Nvidia chips, and its five-year credit default swaps climbed to 194 basis points from roughly 110 in June, per the Financial Times. At that level, insuring $1 million of SpaceX debt costs about $19,400 a year, though the company retains an investment-grade BBB rating.

The company's own IPO filing struck a more cautious note on Baron's orbital data center thesis, stating that initiatives to develop "orbital AI compute and in-orbit, lunar, and interplanetary industrialization are in early stages, involve significant technical complexity and unproven technologies, and may not achieve commercial viability." Separately, SpaceX secured Federal Communications Commission approval to launch 15,000 next-generation Starlink Mobile satellites, which the company says will deliver more than 100 times the bandwidth of existing models. Musk's $100 trillion call now sits alongside an upcoming Starship flight and third-quarter earnings as the next checkpoints for investors watching the thesis.