Stablecoins Circulate More Than They Capitalize, Standard Chartered Pushes $2T Forecast to 2030

Standard Chartered has revised its long-term stablecoin market capitalization forecast upward to $2 trillion by 2030, pushing the projection back two years from its initial timeline after the market plateaued at roughly $309 billion in 2025. In a report shared with Cointelegraph, the bank's head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said stablecoin transaction activity continues to grow even as overall market value has stalled, indicating stablecoins are changing hands more frequently rather than new supply driving expansion. Kendrick identified four distinct stablecoin markets, each with separate competitive dynamics: Tether's USDt ($USDT) leads emerging-market savings, Circle's USDC ($USDC) leads developed-market payments, USDC and Ethena's USDe hold strong positions in crypto trading, and USDC also leads the small but growing market for transactions between AI agents. The bank expects the most intense competition in developed-market payments, where challengers including USDG, M^0 and multibank stablecoin networks are pursuing alternatives to existing payment infrastructure, with the allocation of yield from stablecoin reserves likely to determine which competitors gain market share.

The revised forecast arrives as US regulatory and accounting developments could shape how businesses use stablecoins. Since the GENIUS Act passed in 2025, US regulators have proposed rules governing stablecoin issuance, reserve requirements and consumer protections, with some measures clarifying the boundaries of those protections. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has proposed excluding stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance, and the Treasury Department has advanced implementation of the law. In August, Treasury proposed rules restricting stablecoin issuance in the United States to federally or state-authorized issuers, with licensing requirements expected to take effect in January 2027. Separately in August, the Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed an update that could affect how companies report certain stablecoins on their balance sheets. Blockchain payments company Tempo said the proposed accounting changes could make it easier for businesses to use stablecoins for payments and settlement without introducing additional accounting complications.