Forget $BTC — Copper Just Quietly Outpaced the Whole Crypto Market by 17% ⚙️

Copper prices climbed toward $6.80 per pound on Tuesday, sitting about 2% below the record set in September, as easing expectations of another U.S. rate hike and fresh mining disruptions in Chile pushed the metal higher. On the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper rose 0.5% to roughly $6.63 per pound, leaving prices approximately 17% above where they began 2026. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September — its first increase since 2023 — lifting the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. CME FedWatch data now shows an 80.6% probability that the Fed will hold rates at its October 28 FOMC meeting, with 19.4% odds of another hike, easing some of the pressure that typically weighs on industrial metals when borrowing costs rise. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said further hikes before year-end remain possible.

Supply has also tightened. A mudslide hit the open pit at Codelco's El Teniente mine in Chile on Sunday, killing two contractor workers, with Codelco partially halting operations and citing heavy rainfall; a collapse at the same site killed six miners in July 2025. Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, briefly halted operations in September, and the union at Antofagasta's Centinela mine has warned its strike will affect output from November. In Indonesia, Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine is operating at about 67% of normal capacity, with full recovery not expected before the end of 2027. Morgan Stanley now projects a copper deficit of roughly 600,000 tons this year, contributing to the rally that produced September's record.

Demand projections are adding fuel. Coppernico Metals CEO Ivan Bebek said copper demand could jump 50% by 2040, calling copper "about to become the most important metal for humanity." Technical levels point to $6.55 as a support zone where buyers have repeatedly stepped in, with copper now trading above $6.70, a level it struggled to clear earlier this year, leaving September's record near $6.95 as the next hurdle on the path toward $7 per pound.