- Wall Street Wants 29.6% Q3 Glow-Up—Wall Street Usually Gets It 🧮

Analysts project S&P 500 earnings grew 29.6% in the third quarter, with another estimate citing 29.2% growth, according to FactSet data cited by CNBC. The panel warned that meeting, rather than beating, that bar could disappoint: companies have beat estimates in 37 of the past 40 quarters, and FactSet figures show Q2 earnings rose 52.2% against an end-of-quarter estimate of 23.1%. By Oct. 9, 84% of the 19 S&P 500 companies that had reported had beat estimates, and analysts raised Q3 estimates by 1.4% during the quarter versus a typical 2.5% drop during the past decade.

Guidance from AI-linked tech giants is the deciding factor, panelists said, noting that a record 72 S&P 500 firms issued positive Q3 earnings guidance, 44 of them technology companies. FactSet projects 15.8% earnings growth for 2027, down from 32.7% in 2026, according to its Earnings Insight report. One panelist pointed to Nvidia as an example of how the market has at times lagged strong results, adding that a pattern of misses across several tech names would be hard for the market to absorb.

Spending by cloud infrastructure providers building AI capacity remains the central question, with executive conversations suggesting no pullback because cutting investment risks losing the AI race. At the same time, one panelist cited reports of investor wariness of financing the AI-related risk, citing the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 5.24% on Oct. 9, near a 24-year high according to U.S. Treasury data, as a pressure point. More than half of S&P 500 stocks sit below their 200-day moving averages, another panelist noted, adding that steadier yields, this week's inflation data, and big bank earnings could allow other sectors to narrow the gap with technology.