IMF Warns AI Is a "Slow-Moving Tsunami" Hitting 40% of Jobs, and Crypto Miners Already Know That Feeling 🌊

Artificial intelligence spending is propelling the world economy to roughly 3% annual growth even as an energy shock weighs on most countries, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Monday in Bangkok at the opening of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, which run through October 18 in the Thai capital. Georgieva identified the Asian economies that manufacture AI hardware as the principal beneficiaries, estimating that adoption could add 0.5 to 1 percentage point to growth in advanced economies and 0.2 to 0.8 points in emerging ones annually, with the upper end of that range offsetting demographic drag across the region. The IMF's July outlook update found that the top four net exporters of AI hardware, namely Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia, exceeded first-quarter growth forecasts by an average of 4.4% on an annualized basis, with South Korea growing at 7.5% versus the 1.8% the Fund had projected in April. Georgieva also noted in a Singapore speech last week that AI hardware and related tech products now account for more than a tenth of world goods trade and that AI investment as a share of global GDP is likely to exceed the levels spent on the railroads or the electricity grid.

On labor markets, Georgieva described AI as a "slow-moving tsunami" that the IMF expects to eventually affect about 40% of jobs worldwide, with exposure running near 60% in advanced economies and roughly 23% in low-income countries, the latter figure depressed mainly because AI has not yet reached those markets. She said young people entering the workforce are first in line for disruption, as AI absorbs the routine tasks that traditionally anchor entry-level positions. Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, speaking on the same panel, said demand for graduates' first jobs is already declining and cautioned that AI could widen the divide between rich and developing economies absent government action. Georgieva added that AI could compress public finances by shifting income from workers to capital owners, eroding the tax base governments rely upon most.

World Bank President Ajay Banga said the bank is supporting "small AI" tools not dependent on large language models, targeted at farmers, clinics, and classrooms in emerging markets. Georgieva said in Singapore that the AI build-out is itself adding to inflation, and she warned that disappointing earnings could transmit through markets because major AI companies have borrowed heavily to fund expansion. The IMF projects 2026 global growth at 3%, down from 3.5% in 2025, as the Middle East war pushes energy prices higher. The Fund will publish its full World Economic Outlook at 9 a.m. Bangkok time on October 13.