Houthi Odds Hit "Strait" 28% on Polymarket as $2.2B Tanker Convoy Watches the Bab el-Mandeb Clock ⏳

A Polymarket contract asking whether the Houthis will control the Bab el-Mandeb strait by year-end is trading at 28%, priced at roughly $0.28 on a share that pays out $1 if the outcome is yes. Trading volume on the contract is listed at $2.6 million. The market's resolution source is listed as ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data), the standard conflict-event dataset used across the platform.

The Bab el-Mandeb strait, a narrow shipping chokepoint between Yemen and Djibouti connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, has been a focal point of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping since November 2023. The group, formally known as Ansar Allah, has launched drones and missiles at vessels transiting the corridor in operations it says are linked to the Israel-Gaza conflict. That sustained activity prompted major shipping lines, including Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd, to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, lengthening Europe-Asia voyages by roughly 10 to 14 days.

The timing of the contract has drawn attention because Lloyd's List Intelligence reported in July 2025 that Houthi attacks were costing the shipping industry about $2.2 billion in additional annual fuel costs alone, not including war-risk insurance premiums, rerouted cargo, and elevated freight rates. The London Stock Exchange Group-owned outlet said daily average transits through the strait remained meaningfully below pre-attack volumes, even as ceasefire-related pauses in 2025 briefly restored traffic.

Resolution mechanics on Polymarket stipulate the contract pays out "Yes" if ACLED records a Houthi-controlled administrative or territorial jurisdiction over any part of the Bab el-Mandeb by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 p.m. ET. The current 28% implied probability represents a modest increase from the low single digits traders assigned in early 2024, but remains below the 40-50% range seen during peak 2024 escalation periods, suggesting the market views a full takeover as a tail risk rather than a base case.