Tanker Tape Cramps the Crude Rally: JPMorgan Says the Sea Is the New Spigot 🛢️

The world is not running out of oil, but it is running out of ships to carry it, according to JPMorgan. In an October 9 note, bank analysts Natasha Kaneva, Lyuba Savinova, and Artem Fakhretdinov said a shipping bottleneck, not a supply shortage, is now driving up transport costs even as Middle Eastern producers lift exports. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached 12 million barrels a day in September, up from 7.5 million barrels a day in July and August, with prices for benchmark grades remaining elevated. "In April, the problem was a shortage of crude. In October, it is the cost of moving it," the analysts wrote.

JPMorgan's data show 766 of the world's 923 supertankers were already in use by September, and another 124 Iranian vessels remain largely off-limits to mainstream shipping because of US sanctions. The remaining ships are being routed on longer journeys, while ship-to-ship transfers of crude can take up to 10 days. As a result, moving Middle Eastern crude now requires 35 more supertankers than the 2025 average, excluding Iranian shipments.

The squeeze is showing up in daily freight rates. On October 7, a supertanker heading to South Korea was chartered for $1.162 million per day, according to Seatrade. Brent crude traded near $102.77 on October 9, while US crude reached approximately $93.13. JPMorgan also warned that European refining margins are turning negative, which could force some facilities to cut output.

Policy responses have not yet resolved the logistics gap. Earlier this month, G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves, and President Donald Trump claimed the Strait of Hormuz no longer drives gasoline prices. JPMorgan's findings highlight a constraint those measures do not address, namely the finite number of vessels available to move additional crude. Until shipping costs ease, additional supply may offer limited relief to buyers, and tanker-focused strategies have drawn increased attention amid the disruption.