Bitcoin Hovers at $83K While Everyone Yields to the Obvious 📈

Bitcoin traded at $83,327 on Monday, up 0.6% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data, though the asset remains down 2.9% on the week. The cryptocurrency has "struggled against an increasingly challenging macroeconomic backdrop," Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, told Decrypt. "Rising energy prices have reignited inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar as investors reassess the Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory," she added. "Despite its reputation as a potential alternative store of value, recent price action suggests investors continue to treat Bitcoin predominantly as a risk asset rather than a reliable geopolitical hedge."

Traders see a 19.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's October 28 meeting, down from 22.1% a week ago and 42.5% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch. Prediction markets Polymarket and Myriad both put the odds of a hike at 17%. Bitfire's Jade Shi noted that a shift in rate expectations should in principle support $BTC, but elevated long-term Treasury yields mean broader financial conditions have not fully eased. The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 5.24% and the 30-year yield at 5.60%, according to CNBC, having hit 52-week highs of 5.37% and 5.73% last week. Yields reached their highest levels in more than two decades, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill wrote on Thursday. Butterfill argued that if those yields increasingly reflect concerns about U.S. public finances rather than stronger growth, $BTC begins to look "less like a conventional risk asset and more like an alternative to government-issued money."

Digital asset fund flows have lost momentum after $11.1 billion of inflows since mid-July, according to CoinShares. U.S. spot $BTC ETFs drew $21.13 million in net inflows on Friday, after outflows of $487.07 million on Wednesday and $244.13 million on Thursday, according to SoSoValue. Technically, $BTC has been trading mainly between about $80,300 and $87,100, according to Bitfire. A break above $85,600 on stronger volume could open the way toward $87,395, while a drop below $82,000 would raise the risk of a move toward $79,000.

"The recent easing of Middle East tensions has provided some breathing room, but the sustainability of the rebound will depend on whether the improvement in sentiment translates into a more meaningful retreat in bond yields and the dollar," Hathorn said. Traders are now looking to next week's U.S. consumer price index data as the next major catalyst for price direction.