Peter Brandt Spots a Head-and-Shoulders Ghost in Gold's Chart 👻

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has flagged a head-and-shoulders pattern on gold's weekly chart, warning that a break below the $4,100–$4,200 support zone could open the door to a decline toward $2,890. Brandt stressed the chart "is NOT a prediction," writing in an October 9 post that markets have produced stranger outcomes over his five decades of trading, using the tickers $GC_F and $XAU. The pattern, which forms three peaks with the middle at the highest, typically appears when a strong rally begins to lose momentum, and Brandt noted a sustained close beneath the neckline would signal sellers gaining control.

Gold traded near $4,194 an ounce on October 10, roughly 22% below its January record near $5,405, after recovering modestly from a two-month low hit earlier in the week as bond yields climbed to fresh multi-year highs. A well-received 30-year U.S. Treasury auction helped support the rebound, according to market commentary from Ole S Hansen. Year-to-date, the metal remains down about 4%, reflecting a wide range as investors reassess expectations for U.S. interest rates.

On the fundamental side, the People's Bank of China added 740,000 ounces to its reserves in the most recent month, the largest purchase since 2023 and the 23rd consecutive month of accumulation. Brandt's chart frames the technical risk, while central bank demand continues to provide a counterweight. Whether the pattern resolves lower or fails remains tied to broader conditions, including the path of Federal Reserve policy and Treasury yields, with 2026 on track to be gold's most volatile year since 1982.