Blockchain.com Bets the Farm on CFTC, Joins the Prediction-Market Gold Rush 🎰

Blockchain.com has applied to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for two licenses that would let it operate its own federally regulated prediction-market and crypto derivatives venue for American retail and institutional clients, the company told CNBC. The exchange filed for designation as a Designated Contract Market, which would authorize it to run event-contract futures, and as a Futures Commission Merchant, which would permit it to broker derivatives contracts. If approved, the licenses would allow Blockchain.com to bring in-house the prediction-market and perpetual-futures offerings it currently provides to international users through partnerships with Polymarket and the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. Chief Executive Officer and co-founder Peter Smith told CNBC the goal is to let users manage digital assets, trade derivatives and bet on real-world events in a single platform.

The application adds Blockchain.com to a growing queue of firms seeking federal oversight of event trading. According to CNBC, 12 companies have filed for DCM licenses this year, with the CFTC having approved six new designations in 2026. A CFTC license also offers a potential shield from state gambling regulators, several of whom are suing prediction-market operators including Kalshi and Polymarket. The regulatory picture is in flux: the CFTC has sent the White House new rules aimed at asserting its authority over prediction markets, while a court fight over whether event contracts qualify as federally regulated swaps, pitting the NFL and others against Kalshi, has drawn the attention of the U.S. Supreme Court. New Jersey officials last month asked the Supreme Court to weigh in on their case against Kalshi, a dispute that could resolve the broader federal-state turf war.

The timing coincides with broader moves by the CFTC to formalize crypto oversight. CFTC Chair Michael Selig, in a Wednesday Fox Business interview, said proposed rules registering crypto businesses would bring "safeguards to crypto spot markets," citing the November 2022 collapse of FTX and the resulting criminal charges against former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. On Friday, Selig posted that the agency's rules would prevent "theft of customer funds as we saw with FTX." Selig remains the CFTC's sole commissioner and chair, with no nominations announced for the agency's four vacant seats as of Friday, and has said he intends to enact President Donald Trump's crypto agenda.

The prediction-market sector itself is expanding rapidly. Bernstein analysts have projected the industry could generate billions of dollars in revenue by the end of the decade within what they expect to become a $10 trillion market. Blockchain.com is separately weighing an initial public offering at a valuation of up to $6 billion, with a target of raising $500 million, according to earlier reporting.