Uptober's Audition Tape Got Lost in the Mail 📉

Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $484.9 million on Wednesday, the largest single-day outflow since June 25, according to Decrypt's ETF tracker. BlackRock's IBIT led the exits at $207.7 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $105.1 million, wiping out roughly 81% of the net inflows accumulated over the prior nine sessions. Cumulative net inflows since launch remain at $57.8 billion, with total net assets of $100.6 billion. Thursday added another $244.1 million in outflows, and a modest $21.1 million inflow on Friday left the funds down a net $386.3 million through the first seven trading days of October. The month opened with $292.6 million in inflows across Oct. 1 and Oct. 2, followed by a $118.8 million inflow on Oct. 6, before selling accelerated. The macro backdrop has coincided with the selling: the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 5.7% on Wednesday, its highest since 2002, while Brent crude settled around $100 a barrel and equities pulled back from peaks, with ship attacks around the Strait of Hormuz reported daily since Oct. 2.

The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and minutes from that meeting released Wednesday indicated most officials expect another hike before year end, though no date was set. Traders are pricing an October move as unlikely, with CME FedWatch at 19.4% and prediction market Myriad at 17%. The Fed's next meetings are scheduled for Oct. 27-28 and Dec. 8-9. Bitcoin fell as low as $81,749.83 on Thursday, about 6% below the $86,978 peak hit earlier in the week, and roughly $429 million in derivatives positions were liquidated over 24 hours, with 87.5% of them long bets, according to CoinGlass. Bitcoin had risen in October for six consecutive years through last year, when it fell 3.69%.

Spot Ethereum ETFs have had a rougher October, shedding $56.1 million on Friday to extend their outflow streak to nine straight trading days. The funds have lost $635 million so far this month and nearly $700 million over the full streak, with the heaviest single-day exit, $201.9 million, recorded on Oct. 6. Cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $13.2 billion, and total net assets are $14.5 billion. Spot Solana ETFs are also in the red for October, losing $3.8 million on Friday, their fifth consecutive day of outflows and bringing the month's net total to a loss of $24.8 million. Their only inflow this month was $1.3 million on Oct. 2, and cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $137.9 million.

Separately, a wallet labeled by blockchain analytics firm Arkham as holding seized funds tied to the Bitfinex hack moved 12,267 BTC, worth about $1.01 billion, in a single transaction at 9:33 a.m. ET on Thursday, with nearly all of it sent to a new, unlabeled address and 0.0012 BTC routed to a second wallet.