Uptober Forgot to RSVP: Bitcoin Slumps Below $80K as Hot CPI Crashes the Party 🎃

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Thursday for the first time in over a month, extending a sell-off triggered by a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation print the day before that has now wiped out nearly $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions. BTC was trading around $82,000 after recovering from an intraday low of $79,711, down roughly 2.7% over 24 hours and 2.5% over the past week per CoinGecko data.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% economists expected, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed 2.6% versus a 2.5% forecast. Gasoline prices jumped 9.1% in a single month, accounting for more than half of the headline increase. Thursday's Producer Price Index then added a second shock, rising 6.3% annually against a 5.5% forecast, the largest monthly jump since March 2022, with wholesale gasoline up 20.3%.

The inflation data revived rate-hike bets, with CME FedWatch showing the odds of an October move briefly spiking to roughly 47% from about 22% before settling near 26%-30%, while Polymarket traders put an October hike at 28% and a December hike at 79%. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 10 basis points to roughly 4.9% and the 10-year climbed to about 5.3%, near 24-year highs. "Stronger U.S. inflation data has renewed concerns that interest rates will stay higher for longer," said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based exchange Giottus. Market-making firm STS Digital said the uncertainty could weigh on liquidity across markets. Brent crude hovered near $104 a barrel, about 70% above a year ago amid the war between the U.S. and Iran, and South Korea's KOSPI plunged roughly 8%, triggering circuit breakers.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $484.9 million on Oct. 7, their worst day since June, followed by $244.13 million on Oct. 8, $21.13 million in net inflows on Oct. 9, $150.5 million in outflows on Oct. 14 and $261.5 million on Oct. 15, according to SoSoValue, flipping October to a net outflow of roughly $400 million.

Across the crypto market, 177,440 traders were liquidated in 24 hours for $948.22 million per CoinGlass, with longs accounting for $858.96 million, or 90.6%. Ethereum led with $282.03 million in liquidations, with Bitcoin at just over $200 million; the largest single order was a $12.03 million Bitcoin long on Binance force-closed at $80,208.96. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 53-56, neutral, from a 2025 peak of 82 in late August.

On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders gave 67% odds that BTC trades at or below $80,000 at some point in October, 79% odds BTC ends the week above $82,000 and 28% odds it tops $84,000. "On the bullish side as long as BTC stays above $79,500 we can keep the dream alive," Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at Algoz, told Decrypt. Luke Deans, Senior Research Associate at Bitwise Europe, told Decrypt that $83,000 combines the average ETF cost basis with the prior higher-high threshold and "has been tested repeatedly over recent weeks," with lower support targets at $77,000 (True Market Mean), $74,000 (Short-Term Holder Cost Basis) and the 200-day moving average at $72,000.