Uptober Ghosted: Bitcoin Slides Below $80K as Hot CPI Reignites Fed Hike Fears 👻

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Thursday for the first time in over a month, extending a slide triggered by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data and wiping out nearly $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions. The largest cryptocurrency by market value dropped to an intraday low of $79,711 before recovering to trade near $82,000, per CoinDesk data, with $BTC settling around $81,002, down 2.7% over 24 hours and 2.5% over the past week, according to CoinGecko. Ether ($ETH) fell as low as $2,380.69, while XRP, Solana and Zcash dropped 3.5% to nearly 10%, leaving only five coins in the top 100 with gains above 1%. Across the market, 177,440 traders were liquidated in 24 hours for $948.22 million, with longs accounting for $858.96 million, or 90.6%, per CoinGlass—the third-heaviest day for long liquidations in the past 90 days. The largest single order force-closed was a $12.03 million Bitcoin long on Binance at $80,208.96.

The trigger was Wednesday's Consumer Price Index release, which showed consumer prices up 3.7% year over year in September against a 3.6% forecast, with core inflation at 2.6% versus 2.5% expected and gasoline jumping 9.1% in a single month, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Thursday's Producer Price Index reinforced the shock, rising 6.3% annually versus a 5.5% forecast, with wholesale gasoline up 20.3%. Rates traders quickly repriced the odds of an October Federal Reserve hike to roughly 43–49% from around 22% pre-report, according to CME FedWatch, with Myriad and Polymarket both pricing an October move near 28% by Thursday. The Fed already raised rates to a 3.75%–4.00% range in September and is set to meet October 27–28. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped roughly 10 basis points to about 4.9%, while the 10-year climbed toward 5.3%, near 24-year highs. "Stronger U.S. inflation data has renewed concerns that interest rates will stay higher for longer," said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus. STS Digital warned that "with the next FOMC a coin flip, this uncertainty is damaging liquidity and dampening risk appetite across all assets."

Macro headwinds compounded the move. Brent crude hovered near $104 a barrel, roughly 70% above a year ago amid the war between the U.S. and Iran, while WTI traded around $92.67. South Korea's KOSPI plunged 8% and triggered circuit breakers, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix falling 7% and 10%, respectively, on AI-valuation concerns and Chinese memory-chip competition reported at CXMT. Nasdaq futures dropped as much as 1%, extending Wednesday's declines. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $484.9 million on October 7—erasing about 81% of the $595.3 million that flowed in over the prior nine sessions—followed by $244 million on October 9, $150.5 million on October 14 and $261.4 million on October 15, leaving October net negative at roughly $400 million, per Decrypt's ETF tracker and SoSoValue. Ethereum funds have now bled money for eight straight sessions, losing $640 million over that stretch. Glassnode data cited by Iliya Kalchev of Nexo put the average cost of U.S. spot ETF holders near $82,300, leaving Bitcoin "roughly 2% below" that line.

On the daily chart, $BTC broke below $81,603, the strongest upper support from its August-to-October rally from $62,763 to $87,422, where uptrend pullbacks often stall. The Average Directional Index read 29.9 with buyers still in control, down from 42.8 on October 7, while the Relative Strength Index sat near 51–53, just above the 50 line that separates bullish from bearish momentum. The 50-day exponential moving average remained above the 200-day EMA, preserving the long-term golden cross, and the Squeeze Momentum Indicator had been on for seven sessions, pointing to compressed volatility ahead of a directional break. Bitwise Europe's Luke Deans told Decrypt that the $83,000 region "combines the average ETF cost basis with the prior technical higher-high threshold" and that "Bitcoin could fall materially from current levels and still remain within what we would consider a constructive risk-on structure," flagging the $72,000 to $77,000 zone as a broader transition area. Polymarket odds of a December hike stood at 79%, and traders are now focused on whether Bitcoin can reclaim the Fibonacci golden zone between $81,847.57 and $82,305.50 before Wednesday's CPI follow-through reshapes the path to the October FOMC.