Uptober forgot to RSVP: Bitcoin slides below $83K and the charts are RS-icing on the cake

Bitcoin fell below $83,000 on Thursday and extended losses to a low of $80,427, its weakest level since early September, erasing roughly half of the gains posted the month prior. The decline came alongside a broader risk-off move across crypto majors, with Ethereum ($ETH) falling close to $2,400 and every top-ten asset printing red over seven days. Per CoinGecko data, $BTC is down 4.1% over the past seven days; on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, users priced a 79% chance of Bitcoin ending the week above $82,000 and just a 28% chance of topping $84,000.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $484.9 million on Oct. 7, their worst day since June 25, followed by another $244 million in outflows on Oct. 8, according to Decrypt's ETF tracker. That single Oct. 7 session erased about 81% of the $595.3 million that had flowed in over the previous nine days, cut the 10-day net to $110.4 million, and flipped October net flows to roughly minus $400 million. Ethereum funds have now bled money for eight straight sessions, losing $640 million over that stretch. Bitmine ($BMNR) bought another 12,532 ETH over the past week, worth roughly $32 million at Monday's price of $2,536, bringing holdings to 6,028,946 ETH, worth about $15.3 billion at current prices and representing roughly 4.9% of supply; chairman Tom Lee said last week the firm will stop buying once it reaches 5%.

Technical indicators point to cooling momentum rather than a confirmed reversal. The daily ADX, which measures trend strength regardless of direction, read 40.7, down from 42.8 a day earlier, with buying pressure (+DI) still above selling pressure (-DI). The 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day EMA, keeping the golden cross in play on the daily trend, though the RSI fell to 45.8 from 52.5. The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 56 from 71 on Oct. 2. Bitcoin bounced modestly on Friday, with total crypto market capitalization up 2.1% to $2.89 trillion; $BTC traded around $82,837, up 1.38% on the day, and a daily candle opened at $81,711, ranging between $81,553 and $83,443.

Analysts identified layered support levels beneath current prices. "From a market-structure perspective, the $83,000 region remains an interesting level," Luke Deans, Senior Research Associate at Bitwise Europe, told Decrypt, noting the zone combines the average ETF cost basis with the prior technical higher-high threshold and has been tested repeatedly over recent weeks. Deans said the True Market Mean, or average acquisition price of active investors, sits near $77,000, with lower support at $74,000 via the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, and the 200-day moving average at $72,000 providing an independent technical reference. "Through this lens, Bitcoin could fall materially from current levels and still remain within what we would consider a constructive risk-on structure," Deans told Decrypt. "A move into the $72,000 to $77,000 region would represent a strong retest of the broader transition zone." Ananda Banerjee, Founder and Principal Quantitative Researcher at Charlie Quant Lab, told Decrypt he sees strongest support at $77,000, citing on-chain metrics showing a notable cluster of Bitcoin supply was bought at that level.

Macro headwinds added pressure. Wall Street retreated from record highs on Wednesday as Brent crude hovered near $100 a barrel and Treasury yields stayed near their highest since 2002, while minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting showed most officials expect another rate hike before year-end. Bitcoin previously moved sideways between roughly $83,000 and $87,000 for more than two weeks after a $87,354.33 peak on Sept. 21, and now trades about 5.6% below that level, with Myriad users pricing a 67% chance that Bitcoin trades at or below $80,000 at some point in October.