🐻 Bear Markets Are Supposed to Be Brutal — Someone Forgot to Tell This Cycle

Bitcoin ($BTC) has avoided a daily close below realized price at any point in the current drawdown, a pattern that distinguishes this cycle from the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets, where BTC traded below realized price for months on end. The June 2026 low stayed above that level, and Glassnode analysts note that if price holds above the True Market Mean, the June trough would rank as the shallowest of the three bear-market lows in its comparison.

Aggregate profitability metrics reflect the same divergence. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures paper gains and losses across the entire coin supply, never turned negative in this cycle, in contrast with 2018 and 2022. Percent Supply in Profit, however, fell at the June low to roughly the level seen at the November 2022 low, indicating a similarly large share of coins was underwater at both points. The distinction lies in the magnitude of unrealized losses across the market, not the proportion of holders sitting on them.

Glassnode highlights the largest long-term-holder supply cluster in the $84,000–$85,000 range, describing it as a meaningful concentration of holder supply. The report places the mean MVRV price at $96,700, calculated as the Realized Price multiplied by Bitcoin's long-term multiplier, and frames the cluster as a reference point rather than a forecast for market direction.

The data, drawn from Glassnode's bear-market comparison report, found that NUPL staying above zero does not guarantee every long-term holder is in profit, just as Bitcoin holding above Realized Price does not preclude individual investors from holding underwater positions. Glassnode stated that NUPL remaining above zero does not mean every coin or every long-term holder remains in profit, just as Bitcoin holding above Realized Price does not preclude widespread unrealized losses among specific cohorts.

The findings were published October 5, 2026, and cover Bitcoin on-chain metrics spanning the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets alongside the current cycle.