Davis Bill Says Candidates Can't Bet on Themselves — Apparently That's Still a Thing 🎲

Federal candidates, their spouses, dependent children and authorized campaign committees would be barred from trading prediction-market contracts on their own elections under legislation introduced in the House on Monday by Representative Don Davis (D-NC). The No Betting on Your Own Race Act would amend federal election law to make such trades a civil offense carrying a $10,000 fine per violation, or three times the net financial gain, whichever is greater. The ban would apply to conduct from the date of enactment.

The prohibition is drawn broadly, covering contracts that settle not only on who wins but on whether a person remains a candidate at all, as well as on vote share, margin or placement. Indirect exposure is included, encompassing inducing someone else to trade, holding a beneficial interest however titled, or funding another person's position knowing its purpose. The definition of a political event contract in the bill extends beyond races to caucuses, nominations, control of Congress and any other political or governmental event the CFTC designates by rule.

Much of the text is aimed at exchanges rather than candidates. Platforms and their staff would face no penalty under the section, and would be shielded from liability for acting in good faith to stop a breach, including restricting, suspending or closing accounts and cancelling, voiding or unwinding positions. Exchanges could report suspected violations to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the attorney general or the Federal Election Commission without liability, and without notifying the reported person. To make screening possible, the FEC would be required to publish a free, machine-readable list of every federal candidate, updated at least weekly, carrying each person's name, commission identifier, office sought and entry and exit dates. Holding or selling a position that becomes a covered contract when someone declares is not an offense during whatever minimum divestment window the platform allows.

Davis framed the bill in athletic terms. "We don't want our athletes to bet on their games," he tweeted. "Candidates from different political parties have traded on their own races, and Congress must bring an end to it." Republican House candidate Laurie Buckhout received a three-year suspension and a $2,590 penalty from Kalshi in August over trading event contracts related to her race, though she did not face civil or criminal charges, and Kalshi has fined multiple congressional candidates earlier this year and suspended others.

The bill will not be addressed before the 2026 midterm elections, as the House and Senate are out of session until November, though the House has held some pro forma sessions. Event contracts on U.S. elections remain available on both Kalshi and Polymarket, where current odds favor Democrats retaking Congress in 2027. A separate action, New York suing Polymarket over an alleged illegal gambling business, continues independently of the federal proposal.