30 Days Out: Crypto's Midterm Roulette Spins Up Tax Bills, Toss-Up Senate

The U.S. midterm election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with control of the House of Representatives and the Senate hanging in the balance and consequential implications for cryptocurrency policy in the following Congress. As of Friday, October 2, 2026, consensus polling aggregated by 270towin indicates Democrats are positioned to flip the House, while the Senate remains a tossup. Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, measured at 5:00 p.m. ET on Friday, also show bettors leaning toward Democratic flips in both chambers.

The composition of the next Congress will determine how federal crypto regulators are overseen, whether additional market structure legislation advances, and how the industry maintains relationships with majority parties. The Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury Department and other agencies are expected to continue rulemaking over the next year, while Congress retains authority over their budgets and jurisdictional boundaries.

The Clarity Act, which collapsed last month, had sought in part to delineate how those agencies interact with digital assets. Lawmakers may take up a new market structure bill in the next session, though prospects remain unclear. More certain is continued movement on crypto tax policy: the House Ways and Means Committee passed a crypto tax bill last month on a major bipartisan basis, and Senator Steve Daines introduced a crypto tax bill in the Senate last week.

Congress is currently in its final pre-election recess, with hearings on crypto tax legislation likely after the new Congress convenes. The results on November 3 will shape whether that work accelerates, stalls, or redirects entirely across the $BTC, $ETH and broader digital asset markets.