Dan Gambardello Throws Out the Halving Calendar, Says $BTC Really Runs on the Business Cycle 🗓️➡️📉

Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello, long associated with the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle framework, said he now views the model as "a complete illusion" and is anchoring his outlook instead to the broader business cycle. In a public reversal of his prior stance, Gambardello argued that $BTC price action has correlated more closely with global economic expansion and contraction, measured by indicators such as the ISM PMI, than with the timing of halving events.

Gambardello, who for years incorporated the four-year halving cycle into his market analyses, said Bitcoin has historically weakened during periods of economic contraction, citing the first major bear market in 2011, and has strengthened when the business cycle has re-entered expansion. He contended that several past halvings coincided with transitions from recession to expansion, which he suggested may have created the false impression of a calendar-driven pattern.

The analyst said the current cycle is difficult to reconcile with the classic four-year model. He noted that many market participants expect lower prices around October 2026, but suggested $BTC may have already bottomed in June 2026, a timing he said aligns with a shift in the economic cycle from contraction to expansion. "I was wrong," Gambardello stated, adding that the correlation between price movements and macroeconomic indicators now outweighs any predictable halving-based rhythm in his view.