Uptober Cashes Its First Two Paychecks, But the Year-End Tip Jar Looks Pretty Empty 🪙

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs opened October with $134.4 million in combined net inflows, drawing $102.7 million on Thursday and $31.7 million on Friday, according to Decrypt's Bitcoin ETF tracker. The green start followed a red finish: the funds shed $148.7 million on Sept. 30, snapping a nine-session inflow streak that began Sept. 17. September still ended as the products' second-best month on record, with $2.65 billion in net inflows since October 2025, per SoSoValue data. Cumulative net inflows since launch now stand at $58.1 billion, with total net assets at $101.1 billion, according to Decrypt's tracker.

The buying came as the U.S. labor market showed fresh cracks. The economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, with the two prior months revised down by a combined 60,000, and unemployment rose to 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. After the release, CME FedWatch odds of an October rate hike fell to 14% from 70% earlier in the week, easing pressure on the Fed and generally supporting risk assets like Bitcoin. "Traders feel there is more upside currently than there is downside," Algoz's Stephen Wundke told Decrypt, noting that Bitcoin has averaged an 18% October gain over the past decade — the "Uptober" pattern crypto traders cite each fall.

Bitcoin briefly tested $87,173 on Friday, just shy of its September high of $87,354, before pulling back to $84,786 on Saturday morning, down 0.65% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Another Friday highlight came outside crypto: Nvidia stock hit a record high of $237.88 in morning trading, lifting the chipmaker's market cap to roughly $5.7 trillion and making it the largest of any business on Earth.

Not everyone is convinced the rally has legs. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, put the odds at 93% that Bitcoin won't set a new all-time high in 2026, and year-to-date ETF inflows remain under $1 billion after heavy outflows earlier in the year. The next macro tests arrive quickly: September's CPI report lands Oct. 14 and the Federal Reserve meets Oct. 28.