Jobs Miss, BTC Bliss: Bitcoin Hugs $86K While Wall Street Rechecks Its Math 🧮

Bitcoin hovered around $86,000 on Monday, trailing last week's intraweek peak near $87,000 as traders weighed a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report against the prospect of further Federal Reserve rate increases. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization traded at $86,264.06, up roughly 0.6% over 24 hours, with a market cap of $1.73 trillion, according to CoinDesk and Decrypt data. CoinGecko listed the total crypto market capitalization at just over $3 trillion. Bitcoin dominance stood at 59.1%.

Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below the 90,000 consensus forecast and down from a revised 133,000 gain in August. July's figure was revised from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, versus expectations of 4.1% and August's 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month and 3.0% year over year, compared with forecasts for 0.3% and 3.2% respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 7 basis points on the day to 5.17%, with the two-year yield sliding to 4.71%.

The soft print reduced expectations of an additional rate increase. CME FedWatch odds of a hike at the October meeting dropped to about 14%–22% from roughly 64%–70% earlier in the week. Prediction markets Kalshi, Polymarket, and Myriad showed around 80% odds of a hold on October 28. The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16 in a unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Thursday that policymakers may need more time before deciding whether to raise rates again, and New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday there was "no need for urgency."

Bitcoin briefly topped $86,885 on Friday before the release, and tested a high of $87,173.15 the same day, just shy of the $87,354.33 September peak that now serves as resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sat at 64.7–68.1 depending on the source, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) read 41.8–43.4, with buyers (DI+) above sellers (DI-). The 50-day exponential moving average held above the 200-day, and Bitcoin registered a second golden cross over the period, with the 100-day EMA crossing above the 200-day. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $189.84 million in net inflows on the latest daily reading, bringing total net assets to $101.1 billion. The Fear & Greed Index read 68–71, in "greed" territory.

Ether traded at $2,711–$2,720.62, up less than 1% over 24 hours. XRP held near $1.51, Solana at $120.31, BNB slightly lower, and Tron down 0.22%. Dogecoin led major coins with a 3% gain to just under $0.10, while XRP, BNB and ZEC each added 1%–2%. Zcash rose about 3% on the day to recover from a pullback off its late-September peak near $1,600, with Monero up 2.14% to $562.32; ZEC remains roughly 19% below its $1,698 September high. Traditional markets also rallied, with the S&P 500 closing Friday at 7,722.72 (+0.73%), the Nasdaq at 27,190.86 (+1.19%), and the Dow at 51,176.96 (+0.49%), while the Nasdaq 100 set a record. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) briefly rose above 102 on Thursday to an 18-month high before easing after the jobs data, the euro fell to around $1.12, its weakest since May 2025, and Brent crude slipped 0.7% to about $101.50 a barrel after Saudi Arabia cut prices of its benchmark grade to Asia.