Uptober Arrives: Bitcoin Tries to Earn Its Seasonal Stripes 🟧

Bitcoin began October at $83,823, up 0.28% on the day, following a September that defied its "Red September" reputation but fell short of a historic gain. Bitcoin was up 7.33% for the month with one trading day left, narrowly trailing 2024's 7.29% record before a late correction closed it out with a 6.33% monthly gain. The advance left the month green, breaking from the seasonal weakness often cited in crypto circles.

October now takes the spotlight. The month has returned 19.92% on average and 14.71% at the median for crypto investors since 2013, according to CoinGlass data. October 2025 bucked the trend, closing down 3.69% and marking only the third negative October in the period. The next Federal Reserve decision lands Oct. 28, with the median forecast pointing to one more 25-basis-point hike this year after the unanimous Sept. 16 increase to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation "remains elevated."

Bond yields reacted to the Fed's path. The 10-year Treasury ended September at 5.289% and the 30-year at 5.632%, both 52-week highs. August PCE inflation came in at 3.4% annually against 3.7% expected, with core at 3.0% against 3.3%. The S&P 500 and Dow both posted monthly losses in September.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $3.08 billion over nine straight days through Sept. 29 before the streak ended with $148.69 million in net outflows on Sept. 30, per Decrypt's Bitcoin ETF tracker. Total net assets stand above $101 billion, though totals vary by a few billion depending on the tracking source. The week of Sept. 21 pulled in about $2.4 billion, including a $999 million day, while the current week sits at net outflows of $51.42 million.

On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders are assigning 90% odds to Bitcoin reaching a high of $85,000, with the current safest bet being that $BTC stays flat. A separate Myriad market gives just 7% odds that Bitcoin sets a new all-time high before 2027, a roughly 50% move from current levels.