Bull Score Hits 90, But Bitcoin's Buyers Just Gave It a 33% Profit-Wave Goodbye 🦩

Bitcoin's rally is showing fresh cracks even as an onchain gauge tracked by CryptoQuant sits within striking distance of a ceiling reading. The Bull Score Index compiled by the analytics firm reached 90 out of 100, climbing after $BTC broke above its 365-day moving average last week, a threshold CryptoQuant treats as confirmation of a bull cycle. Despite that reading, the spot and futures demand that powered the move is already pulling back, raising questions about how long the leg up can extend.

Bitcoin gained 0.4% to just above $83,300 during Asian morning hours on Wednesday, retreating from an eight-month high near $87,400, according to CoinDesk data. CryptoQuant estimates that spot demand has contracted by roughly 170,000 $BTC over the past 30 days. The firm measures that figure by comparing newly mined bitcoin against changes in the stockpile of coins that have not moved in a year or more, a metric it calls apparent demand. That gauge has been shrinking throughout September, indicating the market is absorbing fewer coins than are becoming available.

Futures demand is cooling faster. Speculative futures demand growth fell from about 164,000 $BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 $BTC on Sept. 29, a 90% drop in 15 days. Recent buyers are sitting on an average unrealized profit of 33%, the widest since December 2024, and locked in gains on 25,700 $BTC on Sept. 22, the largest single day of profit-taking this year. "Without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend," Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, wrote in the report. "With spot demand still in contraction and futures growth stalling, near-term upside becomes harder to sustain."

Altcoin holders are also moving coins toward exchanges. CryptoQuant counted 76,000 altcoin deposits to centralized venues over seven days, the highest level since October 2025. Among major tokens, $SOL and $ZEC each rose nearly 2% to about $119 and just above $1,400 respectively. $XRP gained about 1% to just under $1.50, while $ETH, $BNB and $TRX each added less than 1%, CoinDesk data shows. The combination of thinning spot flows, fading futures appetite and rising exchange deposits has left the bull score reading at 90 looking more like a peak signal than a launchpad for the next leg higher.