Red September? More Like Bed September: $BTC Flips the Script With Record Run

Bitcoin is on track to post its best September on record, up 7.33% for the month with one day left, narrowly edging the 7.29% return logged in September 2024, according to Coinglass data. The cryptocurrency opened the month around $78,500 after spiking 25% in August. The month averages a negative 2.34% return dating back to 2013, the worst of any month, and Bitcoin closed September in the red in eight of the past 13 years, including six straight from 2017 through 2022. The trend has shifted, with September closing up 3.91% in 2023, 7.29% in 2024 and 5.16% in 2025, setting up four consecutive green Septembers for the longest such streak in the dataset.

Midmonth turbulence appeared to threaten the run. On Sept. 15, the U.S. Senate's Clarity Act failed a cloture vote 49 to 50, and spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $450.4 million, their worst day since June. The following day, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since 2023, and Bitcoin dipped to around $75,000. The reversal came as spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in roughly $2.98 billion across seven straight sessions, including nearly $1 billion on Sept. 21, their best day since October 2025.

Shorts were squeezed along the way, with more than $800 million liquidated in 24 hours as Bitcoin ran to $87,354, its highest level since late January. Bitcoin has since pulled back about 4%, slipping to $83,000 on Monday as Brent crude climbed back above $100 after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Fibonacci retracement levels place natural support and resistance between $74,978 and $87,354, with the next downside zone at $81,166 to $79,705 if $82,626 gives way.

Trend indicators remain bullish. The Average Directional Index reads 42.3, well above the 25 threshold traders use to confirm a strong trend, while the Relative Strength Index sits at 61.2. The 50-day moving average also remains above the 200-day, a pattern known as a golden cross. The "Red September" phenomenon is not unique to crypto, as the S&P 500 has averaged a loss in September since 1945, with factors ranging from summer vacations to tax-loss harvesting cited as contributors.